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Disentangling the bond-CDS nexus: a stress test model of the CDS market

  • Vuillemey, Guillaume
  • Peltonen, Tuomas A.

This paper presents a stress test model for the CDS market, with a focus on the interplay between banks’ bond and CDS holdings. The model enables the analysis of credit risk transfer mechanisms, includes features of market and liquidity risk, and allows for contagious propagation of counterparty failures. As an illustration, we calibrate the model using sovereign bond and CDS data for 65 major European banks. The model simulation shows that, in case of a sovereign credit event, banks’ losses due to direct and correlated bond exposures are significantly higher than losses due to CDS exposures. The main risk for CDS sellers is found to be sudden increases in collateral requirements on multiple correlated CDS exposures. Close-out netting considerably reduces the extent to which contagion may occur. JEL Classification: G21, H63, G15

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File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1599.pdf
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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1599.

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Date of creation: Oct 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131599
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  1. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
  2. Sebastian Heise & Reimer Kuehn, 2012. "Derivatives and Credit Contagion in Interconnected Networks," Papers 1202.3025, arXiv.org.
  3. Sturzenegger, Federico & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2008. "Haircuts: Estimating investor losses in sovereign debt restructurings, 1998-2005," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 780-805, September.
  4. Hans Degryse & Grégory Nguyen, 2007. "Interbank Exposures: An Empirical Examination of Contagion Risk in the Belgian Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 123-171, June.
  5. Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, 2007. "Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 641, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  6. Virginie Coudert & Mathieu Gex, 2010. "The Credit Default Swap Market and the Settlement of Large Defaults," Working Papers 2010-17, CEPII research center.
  7. Markose, Sheri & Giansante, Simone & Shaghaghi, Ali Rais, 2012. "‘Too interconnected to fail’ financial network of US CDS market: Topological fragility and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 627-646.
  8. Amar Gande & David Parsley, 2003. "News Spillovers in the Sovereign Debt Market," Working Papers 062003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  9. S. Heise & R. Kühn, 2012. "Derivatives and credit contagion in interconnected networks," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer, vol. 85(4), pages 1-19, April.
  10. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
  11. Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew & Kapadia, Sujit, 2011. "Complexity, concentration and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 453-470.
  12. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
  13. Christoph Memmel & Angelika Sachs & Ingrid Stein, 2012. "Contagion in the Interbank Market with Stochastic Loss Given Default," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(3), pages 177-206, September.
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