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Contagion in the Interbank Market with Stochastic Loss Given Default

Author Info

  • Christoph Memmel

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

  • Angelika Sachs

    (LMU Munich)

  • Ingrid Stein

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

Abstract

This paper investigates contagion in the German interbank market under the assumption of a stochastic loss given default (LGD). We combine a unique data set about the LGD of interbank loans with detailed data about interbank exposures. We find that the frequency distribution of the LGD is markedly U-shaped. Our simulations show that contagion in the German interbank market may happen. For the point in time under consideration, the assumption of a stochastic LGD leads on average to a more fragile banking system than under the assumption of a constant LGD.

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Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 8 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 177-206

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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2012:q:3:a:5
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Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
  • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
  • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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  1. Lelyveld, Iman van & Liedorp, Franka, 2004. "Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector," MPRA Paper 651, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jul 2005.
  2. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
  3. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2002. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Working Papers 79, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  4. Joao A. Bastos, 2009. "Forecasting bank loans loss-given-default," CEMAPRE Working Papers 0901, Centre for Applied Mathematics and Economics (CEMAPRE), School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.
  5. Stolz, Stéphanie Marie & Wedow, Michael, 2010. "Extraordinary measures in extraordinary times – Public measures in support of the financial sector in the EU and the United States," Occasional Paper Series 117, European Central Bank.
  6. Dermine, J. & de Carvalho, C. Neto, 2006. "Bank loan losses-given-default: A case study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1219-1243, April.
  7. Juan Sole & Marco A Espinosa-Vega, 2010. "Cross-Border Financial Surveillance; A Network Perspective," IMF Working Papers 10/105, International Monetary Fund.
  8. David Aikman & Piergiorgio Alessandri & Bruno Eklund & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia, & Elizabeth Martin, & Nada Mora & Gabriel Sterne & Matthew Willison, 2011. "Funding Liquidity Risk in a Quantitative Model of Systemic Stability," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 12, pages 371-410 Central Bank of Chile.
  9. Christoph Memmel & Ingrid Stein, 2008. "European Data Watch: The Deutsche Bundesbank’s prudential database (BAKIS)," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 128(2), pages 321-328.
  10. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2002. "Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is there a Danger of Contagion?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  11. repec:dgr:kubtil:2009008 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, 2007. "Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 641, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  13. Christian Schmieder, 2006. "European Data Watch: The Deutsche Bundesbank’s large credit database (BAKIS-M and MiMiK)," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 126(4), pages 653-663.
  14. Kavonius, Ilja Kristian & Castrén, Olli, 2009. "Balance Sheet Interlinkages and Macro-Financial Risk Analysis in the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 1124, European Central Bank.
  15. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
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Cited by:

  1. Vuillemey, Guillaume & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2013. "Disentangling the bond-CDS nexus: a stress test model of the CDS market," Working Paper Series 1599, European Central Bank.
  2. Toivanen, Mervi, 2013. "Contagion in the interbank network: An epidemiological approach," Research Discussion Papers 19/2013, Bank of Finland.
  3. Memmel, Christoph & Sachs, Angelika, 2011. "Contagion in the interbank market and its determinants," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2011,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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