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Contagion in the Interbank Market with Stochastic Loss Given Default

Author

Listed:
  • Christoph Memmel

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

  • Angelika Sachs

    (LMU Munich)

  • Ingrid Stein

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

Abstract

This paper investigates contagion in the German interbank market under the assumption of a stochastic loss given default (LGD). We combine a unique data set about the LGD of interbank loans with detailed data about interbank exposures. We find that the frequency distribution of the LGD is markedly U-shaped. Our simulations show that contagion in the German interbank market may happen. For the point in time under consideration, the assumption of a stochastic LGD leads on average to a more fragile banking system than under the assumption of a constant LGD.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Memmel & Angelika Sachs & Ingrid Stein, 2012. "Contagion in the Interbank Market with Stochastic Loss Given Default," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(3), pages 177-206, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2012:q:3:a:5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Aikman & Piergiorgio Alessandri & Bruno Eklund & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Elizabeth Martin & Nada Mora & Gabriel Sterne & Matthew Willison, 2011. "Funding Liquidity Risk in a Quantitative Model of Systemic Stability," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 12, pages 371-410 Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Hans Degryse & Muhammad Ather Elahi & Maria Fabiana Penas, 2010. "Cross-Border Exposures and Financial Contagion," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(Financial), pages 209-240.
    3. Lelyveld, Iman van & Liedorp, Franka, 2004. "Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector," MPRA Paper 651, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jul 2005.
    4. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
    5. Stolz, Stéphanie Marie & Wedow, Michael, 2010. "Extraordinary measures in extraordinary times – Public measures in support of the financial sector in the EU and the United States," Occasional Paper Series 117, European Central Bank.
    6. Bastos, João A., 2010. "Forecasting bank loans loss-given-default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2510-2517, October.
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    8. Christian Schmieder, 2006. "European Data Watch: The Deutsche Bundesbank’s large credit database (BAKIS-M and MiMiK)," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 126(4), pages 653-663.
    9. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
    10. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
    11. Castrén, Olli & Kavonius, Ilja Kristian, 2009. "Balance Sheet Interlinkages and Macro-Financial Risk Analysis in the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 1124, European Central Bank.
    12. Christoph Memmel & Ingrid Stein, 2008. "European Data Watch: The Deutsche Bundesbank’s prudential database (BAKIS)," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 128(2), pages 321-328.
    13. Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2011. "Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1114-1127, May.
    14. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
    15. Dermine, J. & de Carvalho, C. Neto, 2006. "Bank loan losses-given-default: A case study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1219-1243, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Georgescu, Oana-Maria, 2015. "Contagion in the interbank market: Funding versus regulatory constraints," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-18.
    2. Ferrara, Gerardo & Langfield, Sam & Liu, Zijun & Ota, Tomohiro, 2016. "Systemic illiquidity in the interbank network," Bank of England working papers 586, Bank of England, revised 14 Aug 2017.
    3. Markus Brunnermeier & Laurent Clerc & Yanis El Omari & Silvia Gabrieli & Steffen Kern & Christoph Memmel & Tuomas Peltonen & Natalia Podlich & Martin Scheicher & Guillaume Vuillemey, 2013. "Assessing contagion risks from the CDS market," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 04, European Systemic Risk Board.
    4. Vuillemey, Guillaume & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2015. "Disentangling the bond–CDS nexus: A stress test model of the CDS market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 32-45.
    5. Batiz-Zuk, Enrique & López-Gallo, Fabrizio & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & Solórzano-Margain, Juan Pablo, 2016. "Calibrating limits for large interbank exposures from a system-wide perspective," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 198-216.
    6. Memmel, Christoph & Sachs, Angelika, 2013. "Contagion in the interbank market and its determinants," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 46-54.
    7. repec:eco:journ1:2017-04-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ivan Alves & Stijn Ferrari & Pietro Franchini & Jean-Cyprien Heam & Pavol Jurca & Sam Langfield & Sebastiano Laviola & Franka Liedorp & Antonio Sánchez & Santiago Tavolaro & Guillaume Vuillemey, 2013. "The structure and resilience of the European interbank market," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 03, European Systemic Risk Board.
    9. Carsten Chong & Claudia Kluppelberg, 2017. "Contagion in financial systems: A Bayesian network approach," Papers 1702.04287, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2017.
    10. Toivanen, Mervi, 2013. "Contagion in the interbank network : An epidemiological approach," Research Discussion Papers 19/2013, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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