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Contagion in the Interbank Market with Stochastic Loss Given Default

Author Info

  • Christoph Memmel

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

  • Angelika Sachs

    (LMU Munich)

  • Ingrid Stein

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

Abstract

This paper investigates contagion in the German interbank market under the assumption of a stochastic loss given default (LGD). We combine a unique data set about the LGD of interbank loans with detailed data about interbank exposures. We find that the frequency distribution of the LGD is markedly U-shaped. Our simulations show that contagion in the German interbank market may happen. For the point in time under consideration, the assumption of a stochastic LGD leads on average to a more fragile banking system than under the assumption of a constant LGD.

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Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 8 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 177-206

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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2012:q:3:a:5
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.ijcb.org/

Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
  • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
  • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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  1. Marco A. Espinosa-Vega & Juan Solé, 2011. "Cross-border financial surveillance: a network perspective," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 182-205, August.
  2. Iman van Lelyveld & Franka Liedorp, 2004. "Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector," DNB Working Papers 005, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  3. Bastos, João A., 2010. "Forecasting bank loans loss-given-default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2510-2517, October.
  4. David Aikman & Piergiorgio Alessandri & Bruno Eklund & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Elizabeth Martin & Nada Mora & Gabriel Sterne & Matthew Willison, 2011. "Funding Liquidity Risk in a Quantitative Model of Systemic Stability," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 12, pages 371-410 Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Degryse, H.A. & Elahi, M.A. & Penas, M.F., 2009. "Cross-Border Exposures and Financial Contagion," Discussion Paper 2009-20, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Christian Schmieder, 2006. "European Data Watch: The Deutsche Bundesbank’s large credit database (BAKIS-M and MiMiK)," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 126(4), pages 653-663.
  7. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
  8. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
  9. Stolz, Stéphanie Marie & Wedow, Michael, 2010. "Extraordinary measures in extraordinary times – Public measures in support of the financial sector in the EU and the United States," Occasional Paper Series 117, European Central Bank.
  10. Christoph Memmel & Ingrid Stein, 2008. "European Data Watch: The Deutsche Bundesbank’s prudential database (BAKIS)," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 128(2), pages 321-328.
  11. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
  12. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
  13. Dermine, J. & de Carvalho, C. Neto, 2006. "Bank loan losses-given-default: A case study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1219-1243, April.
  14. Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2011. "Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1114-1127, May.
  15. Kavonius, Ilja Kristian & Castrén, Olli, 2009. "Balance Sheet Interlinkages and Macro-Financial Risk Analysis in the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 1124, European Central Bank.
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Cited by:

  1. repec:hhs:bofrdp:2013_019 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Ferrara, Gerardo & Langfield, Sam & Liu, Zijun & Ota, Tomohiro, 2016. "Systemic illiquidity in the interbank network," Bank of England working papers 586, Bank of England.
  3. Toivanen, Mervi, 2013. "Contagion in the interbank network : An epidemiological approach," Research Discussion Papers 19/2013, Bank of Finland.
  4. Vuillemey, Guillaume & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2015. "Disentangling the bond–CDS nexus: A stress test model of the CDS market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 32-45.
  5. Memmel, Christoph & Sachs, Angelika, 2011. "Contagion in the interbank market and its determinants," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2011,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Georgescu, Oana-Maria, 2015. "Contagion in the interbank market: Funding versus regulatory constraints," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-18.

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