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Disentangling the bond–CDS nexus: A stress test model of the CDS market

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  • Vuillemey, Guillaume
  • Peltonen, Tuomas A.

Abstract

We present a stress test model for the CDS market, with a focus on the interplay between banks' bond and CDS holdings. The model enables us to analyse credit risk transfer mechanisms, features of market and liquidity risk, and features contagious propagation of counterparty failures. As an illustration, we calibrate the model using sovereign bond and CDS holdings data for 65 major European banks. The model simulation shows that, in case of a sovereign credit event, banks' losses due to direct and correlated bond exposures are significantly larger than losses due to CDS exposures. The main risk for CDS sellers is found to be sudden increases in collateral requirements on multiple correlated CDS exposures. Close-out netting considerably reduces the extent to which contagion may occur.

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  • Vuillemey, Guillaume & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2015. "Disentangling the bond–CDS nexus: A stress test model of the CDS market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 32-45.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:49:y:2015:i:c:p:32-45
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.03.015
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    Cited by:

    1. Clerc, Laurent & Giovannini, Alberto & Langfield, Sam & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Portes, Richard & Scheicher, Martin, 2016. "Indirect contagion: the policy problem," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 9, European Systemic Risk Board.
    2. Julián Andrada-Félix & Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2018. "Fear connectedness among asset classes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(39), pages 4234-4249, August.
    3. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Scheicher, Martin & Vuillemey, Guillaume, 2014. "The network structure of the CDS market and its determinants," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 118-133.
    4. Mark Paddrik & H. Peyton Young, 2016. "Contagion in the CDS Market," Working Papers 16-12, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    5. Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Using connectedness analysis to assess financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 126-145.
    6. Guillaume Vuillemey, 2015. "Derivatives markets : from bank risk management to financial stability [Les marchés de dérivés : gestion des risques bancaires et stabilité financière]," SciencePo Working papers tel-03507099, HAL.
    7. Laurent Clerc & Alberto Giovannini & Sam Langfield & Tuomas Peltonen & Richard Portes & Martin Scheicher, 2016. "Indirect contagion: the policy problem," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 09, European Systemic Risk Board.
    8. Jeimy Lorena Martínez Arroyo & Nini Johana Marín Rodríguez, 2021. "Relación dinámica entre los Credit Default Swaps y la deuda pública. Análisis en el contexto latinoamericano," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 40(83), pages 583-608, August.
    9. Paddrick, Mark & Rajan, Sriram & Young, H. Peyton, 2020. "Contagion in derivatives markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100868, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Mark Paddrik & Sriram Rajan & H. Peyton Young, 2020. "Contagion in Derivatives Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(8), pages 3603-3616, August.
    11. Drago, Danilo & Gallo, Raffaele, 2017. "The impact of sovereign rating changes on the activity of European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 99-112.
    12. Ferrara, Gerardo & Kim, Jun Sung & Koo, Bonsoo & Liu, Zijun, 2021. "Counterparty choice in the UK credit default swap market: An empirical matching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 58-74.
    13. Guillaume Vuillemey, 2015. "Derivatives markets : from bank risk management to financial stability [Les marchés de dérivés : gestion des risques bancaires et stabilité financière]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-03507099, HAL.
    14. Samaniego-Medina, Reyes & Trujillo-Ponce, Antonio & Parrado-Martínez, Purificación & di Pietro, Filippo, 2016. "Determinants of bank CDS spreads in Europe," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-15.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit event; Credit default swap; Contagion; Collateral; Market risk; Liquidity risk; Stress test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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