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Exchange rate pass-through in emerging countries: Do the inflation environment, monetary policy regime and institutional quality matter?

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  • Antonia Lopez-Villavicencio
  • Valérie Mignon

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer prices and assess its dynamics for a sample of 15 emerging countries over the 1994-2015 period. To this end, we augment the traditional bivariate relationship between the nominal effective exchange rate and inflation by accounting for the inflation environment, monetary policy regime, as well as domestic institutional factors. We show that both the level and volatility of inflation matter in the sense that declining ERPT is evidenced with more stable and anti-inflationary environment. Monetary policy also plays a key role since adopting an inflation target-especially de jure-leads to a significant reduction in ERPT for most countries. Adopting exchange rate targeting regime matters as well, contributing to a diminishing ERPT. Finally, we find evidence that transparency of monetary policy decisions clearly reduces ERPT, while this is not the case for central bank independence.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonia Lopez-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2016. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging countries: Do the inflation environment, monetary policy regime and institutional quality matter?," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-18, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2016-18
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    3. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2021. "On the Seemingly Incompleteness of Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices: Do Globalization and/or Regional Trade Matter?," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Gilles Dufrénot & Takashi Matsuki (ed.), Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, pages 35-59, Springer.
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    5. Yilmaz, Nejat & Yucel, Eray, 2021. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices in Turkey: Nonparametric Kernel Estimation Evidence," MPRA Paper 105895, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Cengiz TUNC & Mustafa Kilinc, 2018. "Exchange Rate Pass‐Through In A Small Open Economy: A Structural Var Approach," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 410-422, October.
    7. Eliphas Ndou, 2022. "The exchange rate passthrough to consumer price inflation in South Africa: has the inflation target band induced a structural change in the size of passthrough?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(6), pages 1-32, June.
    8. Gayaker, Savas & Ağaslan, Erkan & Alkan, Buket & Çiçek, Serkan, 2021. "The deterioration in credibility, destabilization of exchange rate and the rise in exchange rate pass-through in Turkey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 571-587.
    9. Tunç, Cengiz, 2017. "A Survey on Exchange Rate Pass through in Emerging Markets," Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, BETA Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 205-233, July-Sept.
    10. Montfaucon, Angella Faith & Sato, Kiyotaka & Shrestha, Nagendra & Parsons, Craig, 2021. "Exchange rate pass-through and invoicing currency choice between fixed and floating exchange rate regimes: Evidence from Malawi’s transaction-level data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 562-577.
    11. Fatma Marrakchi Charfi & Mohamed Kadria, 2016. "Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through Transmission To Prices: An Svar Model For Tunisia," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(04), pages 1-23, December.
    12. Adekunle, Wasiu & Tiamiyu, Ajao, 2018. "Exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Nigeria: An asymmetric approach," MPRA Paper 88797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Bossone, Biagio, 2019. "The portfolio theory of inflation (and policy effectiveness)," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Yu HSING, 2019. "Does the Mundell-Fleming Model apply to Poland?," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(621), W), pages 265-272, Winter.
    15. Calero, Roberto & Rodriguez, Gabriel & Salcedo Cisneros, Rodrigo, 2022. "Evolution of the Exchange Rate Pass-Throught into Prices in Peru: An Empirical Application Using TVP-VAR-SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-510, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    16. Michael Debabrata Patra & Joice John, 2018. "Non-Linear, Asymmetric and TimeVarying Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Recent Evidence from India," Working Papers id:12700, eSocialSciences.
    17. Bossone, Biagio, 2019. "The portfolio theory of inflation and policy (in)effectiveness," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-25.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate pass-through; inflation; emerging countries; monetary policy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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