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Exchange Rate Pass-through in Emerging Countries: Do the Inflation Environment, Monetary Policy Regime and Institutional Quality Matter?

Listed author(s):
  • Antonia Lopez-Villavicencio
  • Valérie Mignon

In this paper, we estimate the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer prices and assess its dynamics for a sample of 15 emerging countries over the 1994-2015 period. To this end, we augment the traditional bivariate relationship between the nominal effective exchange rate and inflation by accounting for the inflation environment, monetary policy regime, as well as domestic institutional factors. We show that both the level and volatility of inflation matter in the sense that declining ERPT is evidenced with more stable and anti-inflationary environment. Monetary policy also plays a key role since adopting an inflation target—especially de jure—leads to a significant reduction in ERPT for most countries. Adopting exchange rate targeting regime matters as well, contributing to a diminishing ERPT. Finally, we find evidence that transparency of monetary policy decisions clearly reduces ERPT, while this is not the case for central bank independence.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2016-07.

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Date of creation: Apr 2016
Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-07
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