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Are Conditional Cash Transfers Fulfilling Their Promise? Schooling, Learning, and Earnings After 10 Years

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  • Macours, Karen
  • Barham, Tania
  • Maluccio, John

Abstract

Interventions promoting investment in child human capital are motivated by their potential to break the intergenerational transmission of poverty. With this goal, conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs are the anti-poverty program of choice in many developing countries even though the evidence on their longer term objectives is inconclusive. This paper uses the randomized phase-in of a CCT program in Nicaragua to estimate long-term education, learning, and labor market effects for males 10 years after the start of the program. Gains in schooling and learning coincide with positive labor market returns including higher earnings, and demonstrate important long-term returns to CCTs.

Suggested Citation

  • Macours, Karen & Barham, Tania & Maluccio, John, 2017. "Are Conditional Cash Transfers Fulfilling Their Promise? Schooling, Learning, and Earnings After 10 Years," CEPR Discussion Papers 11937, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11937
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karen Macours & Norbert Schady & Renos Vakis, 2012. "Cash Transfers, Behavioral Changes, and Cognitive Development in Early Childhood: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 247-273, April.
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    9. Doyle, Orla & Harmon, Colm & Heckman, James J. & Logue, Caitriona & Moon, Seong Hyeok, 2017. "Early skill formation and the efficiency of parental investment: A randomized controlled trial of home visiting," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 40-58.
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    12. Rachid Laaja & Karen Macours, 2021. "Measuring Skills in Developing Countries," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 56(4), pages 1254-1295.
    13. Karen Macours & Norbert Schady & Renos Vakis, 2012. "Cash Transfers, Behavioral Changes, and Cognitive Development in Early Childhood: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 247-273, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Teresa Molina Millán & Tania Barham & Karen Macours & John A Maluccio & Marco Stampini, 2019. "Long-Term Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfers: Review of the Evidence," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 34(1), pages 119-159.
    2. Jules Gazeaud & Claire Ricard, 2021. "Conditional cash transfers and the learning crisis: evidence from Tayssir scale-up in Morocco," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp2102, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    3. Daniela Del Boca & Chiara Pronzato & Giuseppe Sorrenti, 2020. "Cash Transfer Programs and Household Labor Supply," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 605, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    4. Teresa Molina Millán & Karen Macours, 2017. "Attrition in randomized control trials: Using tracking information to correct bias," FEUNL Working Paper Series novaf:wp1702, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
    5. Tilman Brück & Oscar Mauricio Díaz Botía & Neil T. N. Ferguson & Jérôme Ouédraogo & Zacharias Ziegelhöfer, 2019. "Assets for Alimentation? The Nutritional Impact of Assets-based Programming in Niger," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(S1), pages 55-74, December.
    6. Sarah Baird & David McKenzie & Berk Özler, 2018. "The effects of cash transfers on adult labor market outcomes," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, December.
    7. Del Boca, Daniela & Pronzato, Chiara & Sorrenti, Giuseppe, 2021. "Conditional cash transfer programs and household labor supply," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    8. Baird, Sarah & McIntosh, Craig & Özler, Berk, 2019. "When the money runs out: Do cash transfers have sustained effects on human capital accumulation?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 169-185.
    9. Ham, Andrés & Michelson, Hope C., 2018. "Does the form of delivering incentives in conditional cash transfers matter over a decade later?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 96-108.
    10. Teresa Molina Millan & Karen Macours, 2017. "Attrition in randomized control trials: Using tracking information to correct bias," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp1702, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    11. Luis Laguinge & Leonardo Gasparini & Guido Neidhöfer, 2024. "The Long-Run Effects of Conditional Cash Transfers: the Case of Bolsa Familia in Brazil," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0328, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    12. Yuliani, Efi & Nasrudin, Rus'an, 2024. "The effects of the Indonesian conditional cash transfer program on transition out of agriculture," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    13. Armando Barrientos & Daniele Malerba, 2020. "Social assistance and inclusive growth," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(3), pages 33-53, July.
    14. Rachid Laaja & Karen Macours, 2021. "Measuring Skills in Developing Countries," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 56(4), pages 1254-1295.
    15. Beuermann, Diether & Ramos Bonilla, Andrea & Stampini, Marco, 2024. "Can Conditional Cash Transfers Alter the Effectiveness of Other Human Capital Development Policies?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13484, Inter-American Development Bank.
    16. Pearl S. Kyei & Fred Mawunyo Dzanku & Samuel Kobina Annim, 2025. "Changes in population literacy and numeracy in Ghana after three decades of free basic education," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 43(1), January.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

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