IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cfm/wpaper/1535.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Looking for a success in the euro crisis adjustment programs: the case of Portugal

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo Reis

    (Department of Economics School of Arts and Sciences Columbia University
    Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM))

Abstract

Portugal’s adjustment program in 2010-14 under the troika was extensive and aimed at addressing its large debt and anemic growth, so it may serve as a blueprint for reforms in the Eurozone. This paper argues that, conditional on a diagnosis of the underlying problems of the Portuguese economy, the adjustment program failed to deliver in definitely addressing the problems in public finances, but succeeded in leaving promising signs of reform in the structure of the economy. In particular, on the negative side, public debt is still high, primary surpluses improved modestly, and public spending barely fell as the problem of ever-rising pension payments remained unsolved. On the positive side, unemployment fell sharply, exports and the current account balance rose, capital and labor reallocated to more productive and tradable sectors, and the country is growing faster than the EU for the first time in 15 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Reis, 2015. "Looking for a success in the euro crisis adjustment programs: the case of Portugal," Discussion Papers 1535, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    • Handle: RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1535
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Discussion-Papers/2015/CFMDP2015-35-Paper.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2014
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fagan, Gabriel & Gaspar, Ví­tor, 2007. "Adjusting to the euro," Working Paper Series 716, European Central Bank.
    2. Dias, Daniel A. & Richmond, Christine & Wright, Mark L.J., 2014. "The stock of external sovereign debt: Can we take the data at ‘face value’?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 1-17.
    3. Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Timoney, Kevin & Byrne, David, 2014. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2014," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20141, December.
    4. Ricardo Reis, 2013. "The Portugese Slump and Crash and the Euro Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 143-210.
    5. Athanasios Orphanides, 2015. "The Euro Area Crisis Five Years After the Original Sin," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 48(4), pages 535-565.
    6. Luís Fonseca & Miguel Faria-e-Castro & Matteo Crosignani, 2015. "Central Bank Interventions, Demand for Collateral, and Sovereign Borrowing Costs," Working Papers w201509, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    7. Julian Schumacher & Beatrice Weder di Mauro, 2015. "Greek Debt Sustainability and Official Crisis Lending," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 279-305.
    8. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2013. "Finance at Center Stage: Some Lessons of the Euro Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 9415, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. McQuinn, Kieran & Whelan, Karl, 2015. "Europe's Long-Term Growth Prospects: With and Without Structural Reforms," Papers WP501, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Pedro Lains, 2008. "The Portuguese Economy in the Irish Mirror, 1960–2004," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 667-683, November.
    11. Ben S. Bernanke, 2012. "Housing Markets in Transition : a speech at the 2012 National Association of Homebuilders International Builders' Show, Orlando, Florida, February 10, 2012," Speech 632, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 309-400.
    2. Terzi, Alessio, 2020. "Macroeconomic adjustment in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    3. Olivier Blanchard & Pedro Portugal, 2017. "Boom, slump, sudden stops, recovery, and policy options. Portugal and the Euro," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 16(3), pages 149-168, December.
    4. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2017. "Heterogeneity in the debt-growth nexus: Evidence from EMU countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 470-486.
    5. Jorge Sinval & M. Joseph Sirgy & Dong-Jin Lee & João Marôco, 0. "The Quality of Work Life Scale: Validity Evidence from Brazil and Portugal," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 0, pages 1-29.
    6. Nataliya Yu. Tanyushcheva, 2019. "Background of Anti-Money Laundering Regulation in Modern Economic Theory," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 127006, Russia, issue 6, pages 96-107, December.
    7. Jorge Sinval & M. Joseph Sirgy & Dong-Jin Lee & João Marôco, 2020. "The Quality of Work Life Scale: Validity Evidence from Brazil and Portugal," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 15(5), pages 1323-1351, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2017. "Addressing the Core-Periphery Imbalances in Europe: Resource Misallocation and Expansionary Fiscal Policies," EconPol Working Paper 6, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Lane, Philip R., 2013. "Capital Flows in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 9493, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Jeroen Hessel, 2019. "Medium-term asymmetric fluctuations and EMU as an optimum currency area," DNB Working Papers 644, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. António Afonso & Jorge Silva, 2017. "Current account balance cyclicality," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(13), pages 911-917, July.
    5. Tomasz Serwach, 2013. "Renminbi jako waluta miedzynarodowa - stan obecny oraz ocena perspektyw / Renminbi as international currency - current state and potential perspectives," International Economics, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, issue 4, pages 39-53, December.
    6. D. Siena, 2014. "The European Monetary Union and Imbalances: Is it an Anticipation Story ?," Working papers 501, Banque de France.
    7. Furceri, Davide & Kilic Celik, Sinem & Jalles, João Tovar & Koloskova, Ksenia, 2021. "Recessions and total factor productivity: Evidence from sectoral data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 130-138.
    8. V. Bignon & F. Boissay & C. Cahn & L.-M. Harpedanne de Belleville, 2016. "Extended eligibility of credit claims for Eurosystem refinancing Consequences for the supply of credit to companies," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 43, pages 15-23, Autumn.
    9. Benigno, Gianluca & Converse, Nathan & Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Large capital inflows, sectoral allocation, and economic performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 60-87.
    10. Tommaso Monacelli & Luca Sala & Daniele Siena, 2018. "Real Interest Rates and Productivity in Small Open Economies," Working papers 704, Banque de France.
    11. Feld, Lars P. & Hirsch, Patrick F. & Köhler, Ekkehard A. & Wolfinger, Julia & Döhrn, Roland & Fuest, Angela & Micheli, Martin, 2017. "Auswirkungen der Rettungsprogramme auf die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Programmländer Portugal und Irland. Endbericht," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 177813.
    12. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Sam Langfield & Marco Pagano & Ricardo Reis & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Dimitri Vayanos, 2017. "ESBies: safety in the tranches," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 32(90), pages 175-219.
    13. Fernando Alexandre & Sara Cruz & Miguel Portela, 2020. "Financial distress and the role of management in micro and small-sized firms," NIPE Working Papers 06/2020, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    14. Dinger, Valeriya & te Kaat, Daniel Marcel, 2020. "Cross-border capital flows and bank risk-taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    15. Ivan Jaccard & Frank Smets, 2020. "Structural Asymmetries and Financial Imbalances in the Eurozone," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 73-102, April.
    16. Robert Dekle & Cheng Hsiao & Siyan Wang, 2001. "The Real Effects of Capital Inflows on Emerging Markets," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02), pages 165-202.
    17. Andrés, Javier & Arce, Óscar & Thomas, Carlos, 2017. "Structural reforms in a debt overhang," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 15-34.
    18. Philippe Aghion & Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat & Hélène Maghin, 2018. "The inverted-U relationship between credit access and productivity growth," CEP Discussion Papers dp1588, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    19. Fernando Alexandre & Hélder Costa & Miguel Portela & Miguel Rodrigues, 2018. "Asymmetric regional dynamics: from bust to recovery," NIPE Working Papers 17/2018, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    20. Anthonisen, Niels, 2018. "Sticky prices in a dynamic network economy: A family of counterexamples," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-20.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1535. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cmlseuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Hannon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cmlseuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.