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Tax Revenue Instability in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and Remedies

This paper focuses on the sources and consequences of the instability of tax revenue in Sub-Saharan African countries. We took advantage of a unique and extraordinarily rich dataset on the composition of tax revenues for a large number of countries. Using panel data for 37 countries observed over the period 1980-2005, our results are twofold. First, the instability of government tax revenue leads to the instability of both public investment and government consumption, and also reduces the level of public investment. Second, the reliance on domestic indirect taxation-based systems appears to have a robust stabilising effect.

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Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 418.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:418
Contact details of provider: Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/

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  8. Diallo, Oumar, 2009. "Tortuous road toward countercyclical fiscal policy: Lessons from democratized sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 36-50.
  9. Fielding, David, 1997. "Modelling the Determinants of Government Expenditure in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 6(3), pages 377-90, October.
  10. Barro, Robert J., 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Scholarly Articles 3451400, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  11. Lim, David, 1983. "Instability of government revenue and expenditure in less developed countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 447-450, May.
  12. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
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  14. Gomanee, Karuna & Girma, Sourafel & Morrissey, Oliver, 2005. "Aid and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Accounting for Transmission Mechanisms," Working Paper Series RP2005/60, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  15. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2002. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," CEPR Discussion Papers 3277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Miguel D. Ramirez & Nader Nazmi, 2003. "Public Investment and Economic Growth in Latin America: an Empirical Test," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 115-126, February.
  17. Michael Keen & Mario Mansour, 2010. "Revenue Mobilisation in Sub-Saharan Africa: Challenges from Globalisation I - Trade Reform," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 28(5), pages 553-571, 09.
  18. Baunsgaard, Thomas & Keen, Michael, 2010. "Tax revenue and (or?) trade liberalization," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(9-10), pages 563-577, October.
  19. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  20. Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Jean-François BRUN, 1997. "How Instability Lowers African Growth ?," Working Papers 199712, CERDI.
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  23. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
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