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A Tale of Cyclicality, Aid Flows and Debt: Government Spending in Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Victor D. Lledó
  • Irene Yackovlev
  • Lucie Gadenne

Abstract

This paper documents cyclical patterns of government expenditures in Sub-Saharan Africa since 1970 and explains variation between countries and over time. Controlling for endogeneity and applying dynamic generalised method of moment (GMM) techniques, it finds that government expenditures are slightly more procyclical in Sub-Saharan Africa than in other developing countries and some evidence that procyclicality in Africa has declined in recent years after a period of high procyclicality during the 1980s and 1990s. We find suggestive evidence that greater fiscal space, proxied by lower external debt, and better access to concessional financing, proxied by larger aid flows, contributed to diminishing procyclicality in the region. We do not find, however, any evidence that political institutions affect fiscal procyclicality in Sub-Saharan Africa. Copyright 2011 , Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor D. Lledó & Irene Yackovlev & Lucie Gadenne, 2011. "A Tale of Cyclicality, Aid Flows and Debt: Government Spending in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 20(5), pages 823-849, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:20:y:2011:i:5:p:823-849
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jae/ejr022
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    Cited by:

    1. Elva Bova & Nathalie Carcenac & Martine Guerguil, 2014. "Fiscal Rules and the Procyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Developing World," IMF Working Papers 14/122, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Lledó, Victor & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2013. "Fiscal Policy Implementation in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 79-91.
    3. Tedesco, Ilaria & Pelloni, Alessandra & Trovato, Giovanni, 0. "Oecd Agricultural Subsidies And Poverty Rates In Lower Income Countries," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3.
    4. Alexander D Klemm, 2014. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America over the Cycle," IMF Working Papers 14/59, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Cesar Calderon & Sebastien Boreux, 2016. "Citius, Altius, Fortius: Is Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa More Resilient?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 25(4), pages 502-528.
    6. Sampawende J Tapsoba & Robert C York & Neree C.G.M. Noumon, 2016. "Can Statistical Capacity Building Help Reduce Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries?," IMF Working Papers 16/209, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Remi Jedwab & Adam Storeygard, "undated". "Economic and Political Factors in Infrastructure Investment: Evidence from Railroads and Roads in Africa 1960–2015," Working Papers 2017-3, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    8. repec:eee:ecmode:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:138-146 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00229 is not listed on IDEAS

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