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A Tale of Cyclicality, Aid Flows and Debt: Government Spending in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Victor D. Lledó

    (IMF - International Monetary Fund - International Monetary Fund (IMF))

  • Irene Yackovlev

    (IMF - International Monetary Fund - International Monetary Fund (IMF))

  • Lucie Gadenne

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper documents cyclical patterns of government expenditures in Sub-Saharan Africa since 1970 and explains variation between countries and over time. Controlling for endogeneity and applying dynamic generalised method of moment (GMM) techniques, it finds that government expenditures are slightly more procyclical in Sub-Saharan Africa than in other developing countries and some evidence that procyclicality in Africa has declined in recent years after a period of high procyclicality during the 1980s and 1990s. We find suggestive evidence that greater fiscal space, proxied by lower external debt, and better access to concessional financing, proxied by larger aid flows, contributed to diminishing procyclicality in the region. We do not find, however, any evidence that political institutions affect fiscal procyclicality in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor D. Lledó & Irene Yackovlev & Lucie Gadenne, 2011. "A Tale of Cyclicality, Aid Flows and Debt: Government Spending in Sub-Saharan Africa," Post-Print hal-00813036, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00813036
    DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejr022
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://pjse.hal.science/hal-00813036v1
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    1. Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba & Mr. Robert C York & Neree C.G.M. Noumon, 2016. "Can Statistical Capacity Building Help Reduce Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries?," IMF Working Papers 2016/209, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Ribeiro, Ana Paula & Carvalho, Vitor & Sanches, Hélder, 2021. "Debt dynamics and fiscal policy stance in Cape Verde: Is there evidence of pro-cyclical behavior?," MPRA Paper 111305, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Idrys Fransmel Okombi, 2021. "Non-Linear Response of Fiscal Policy to the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1097-1112.
    4. Lledó, Victor & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2013. "Fiscal Policy Implementation in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 79-91.
    5. Robert C. M. Beyer & Lazar Milivojevic, 2021. "Fiscal policy and economic activity in South Asia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 340-358, February.
    6. Tedesco, Ilaria & Pelloni, Alessandra & Trovato, Giovanni, 2015. "Oecd Agricultural Subsidies And Poverty Rates In Lower Income Countries," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(2), pages 1-19, April.
    7. Calderon,Cesar & Castillo Castro,Catalina, 2019. "Trade Integration and Growth : Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8859, The World Bank.
    8. Ardanaz, Martín & Cavallo, Eduardo & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Puig, Jorge, 2021. "Growth-friendly fiscal rules? Safeguarding public investment from budget cuts through fiscal rule design," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    9. Edward F. Buffie & Manoj Atolia, 2016. "Fiscal Adjustment and Inflation Targeting in Less Developed Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(8), pages 1839-1875, December.
    10. Remi Jedwab & Adam Storeygard, 2019. "Economic and Political Factors in Infrastructure Investment: Evidence from Railroads and Roads in Africa 1960–2015," Economic History of Developing Regions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 156-208, May.
    11. Tobignaré Yabré & Gervasio Semedo, 2021. "Political stability and fiscal consolidation in sub‐Saharan African countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 1077-1109, April.
    12. Cesar Calderon & Sebastien Boreux, 2016. "Citius, Altius, Fortius: Is Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa More Resilient?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 25(4), pages 502-528.
    13. Andersson, Jens, 2018. "Tax Stabilisation, Trade and Political Transitions in Francophone West Africa over 120 Years," African Economic History Working Paper 41/2018, African Economic History Network.
    14. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sow, Moussé, 2017. "Is fiscal policy always counter- (pro-) cyclical? The role of public debt and fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 138-146.
    15. Mr. Alexander D Klemm, 2014. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America over the Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2014/059, International Monetary Fund.
    16. World Bank Group, "undated". "Africa's Pulse, No. 17, April 2018," World Bank Publications - Reports 29667, The World Bank Group.
    17. Calderon,Cesar & Zeufack,Albert G., 2020. "Borrow with Sorrow ? The Changing Risk Profile of Sub-Saharan Africa's Debt," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9137, The World Bank.
    18. Itchoko motande Mondjeli mwa ndjokou, 2017. "Institutions and pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy in Sub Saharan Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 1365-1380.
    19. Ms. Elva Bova & Nathalie Carcenac & Ms. Martine Guerguil, 2014. "Fiscal Rules and the Procyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Developing World," IMF Working Papers 2014/122, International Monetary Fund.

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