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Designing Advance Market Commitments for New Vaccines

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Kremer

    (University of Chicago - Department of Economics; NBER)

  • Jonathan D. Levin

    (Stanford University - Graduate School of Business; NBER)

  • Christopher M. Snyder

    (Dartmouth College - Department of Economics; NBER)

Abstract

Advance market commitments (AMCs) provide a mechanism to stimulate investment by suppliers of products to low-income countries. In an AMC, donors commit to a fund from which a specified subsidy is paid per unit purchased by low-income countries until the fund is exhausted, strengthening suppliers' incentives to invest in research, development, and capacity. Last decade saw the launch of a $1.5 billion pilot AMC to distribute pneumococcal vaccine to the developing world; in the current pandemic, variations on AMCs are being used to fund COVID-19 vaccines. This paper undertakes the first formal analysis of AMCs. We construct a model in which an altruistic donor negotiates on behalf of a low-income country with a vaccine supplier after the supplier has sunk investments. We use this model to explain the logic of an AMC—as a solution to a hold-up problem—and to analyze alternative design features under various economic conditions (cost uncertainty, supplier competition). A key finding is that optimal AMC design differs markedly depending on where the product is in its development cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Kremer & Jonathan D. Levin & Christopher M. Snyder, 2020. "Designing Advance Market Commitments for New Vaccines," Working Papers 2020-175, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2020-175
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kremer, Michael R., 1998. "Patent Buyouts: A Mechanism for Encouraging Innovation," Scholarly Articles 3693705, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    2. Donald W Light, 2005. "Making Practical Markets for Vaccines," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(10), pages 1-1, September.
    3. Michael Kremer & Jonathan Levin & Christopher M. Snyder, 2020. "Advance Market Commitments: Insights from Theory and Experience," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 269-273, May.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Joshua Linn, 2004. "Market Size in Innovation: Theory and Evidence from the Pharmaceutical Industry," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(3), pages 1049-1090.
    5. E. Glen Weyl & Jean Tirole, 2012. "Market Power Screens Willingness-to-Pay," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(4), pages 1971-2003.
    6. Michael Kremer, 1998. "Patent Buyouts: A Mechanism for Encouraging Innovation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1137-1167.
    7. Ernst R. Berndt & Rachel Glennerster & Michael R. Kremer & Jean Lee & Ruth Levine & Georg Weizsäcker & Heidi Williams, 2007. "Advance market commitments for vaccines against neglected diseases: estimating costs and effectiveness," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 491-511, May.
    8. Michael Kremer & Heidi Williams, 2010. "Incentivizing Innovation: Adding to the Tool Kit," NBER Chapters, in: Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 10, pages 1-17, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chad P. Bown & Thomas J. Bollyky, 2022. "How COVID‐19 vaccine supply chains emerged in the midst of a pandemic," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 468-522, February.
    2. Batabyal, Amitrajeet & Beladi, Hamid, 2022. "City and Regional Demand for Vaccines Whose Supply Arises from Competition in a Bertrand Duopoly," MPRA Paper 113758, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jun 2022.
    3. Dewatripont, Mathias, 2022. "Which policies for vaccine innovation and delivery in Europe?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    4. Ockenfels Axel, 2021. "Marktdesign für eine resiliente Impfstoff-produktion," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 22(3), pages 259-269, September.
    5. Michel Callon & Alvin E. Roth, 2021. "The design and performation of markets: a discussion," AMS Review, Springer;Academy of Marketing Science, vol. 11(3), pages 219-239, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D02 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

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