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Quantifying the social value of a universal COVID-19 vaccine and incentivizing its development

Author

Listed:
  • Rachel Glennerster

    (University of Chicago)

  • Thomas Kelly

    (1Day Sooner)

  • Claire T. McMahon

    (University of Chicago)

  • Christopher M. Snyder

    (Dartmouth College)

Abstract

Booster shots for COVID-19 vaccines in the United States have undergone periodic updates to target circulating variants. However, the lengthy process of development, testing, and production has resulted lags between a variant’s initial detection and the corresponding booster's rollout, by which time the booster may no longer match the circulating variant. An innovation with realistic scientific potential—a universal COVID-19 vaccine, effective against existing and future variants—could provide much more value by preempting new variants. Averaged across Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate that, even under conservative assumptions on the arrival rate of variants, a universal COVID-19 vaccine would increase health benefits over variant-specific boosters by more than $900 billion. This social value eclipses the cost of an advance market commitment to incentivize the universal vaccine by several orders of magnitude.

Suggested Citation

  • Rachel Glennerster & Thomas Kelly & Claire T. McMahon & Christopher M. Snyder, 2024. "Quantifying the social value of a universal COVID-19 vaccine and incentivizing its development," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 28(4), pages 723-761, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:reecde:v:28:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s10058-024-00363-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10058-024-00363-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Kremer & Jonathan Levin & Christopher M. Snyder, 2020. "Advance Market Commitments: Insights from Theory and Experience," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 269-273, May.
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    10. Susan Athey & Juan Camilo Castillo & Esha Chaudhuri & Michael Kremer & Alexandre Simoes Gomes & Christopher M Snyder, 2022. "Expanding capacity for vaccines against Covid-19 and future pandemics: a review of economic issues," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(4), pages 742-770.
    11. William Msemburi & Ariel Karlinsky & Victoria Knutson & Serge Aleshin-Guendel & Somnath Chatterji & Jon Wakefield, 2023. "The WHO estimates of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 613(7942), pages 130-137, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vaccine; COVID-19; Coronavirus; Universal vaccine; Advance market commitment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • L65 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Chemicals; Rubber; Drugs; Biotechnology; Plastics

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