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The impact of climate change on agriculture and food prices: combining a micro land use model and a market equilibrium model

Author

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  • Kan, Iddo
  • Kimhi, Ayal
  • Kaminski, Jonathan

Abstract

We develop an empirical farmland allocation model based on explicit profit functions that is linked to a market demand model. The model accounts for corner solutions, enabling estimation with disaggregated data, and thereby allows treating prices as exogenous. The integrated model enables assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture under partial equilibrium in food markets, while incorporating the production responses of the micro units. For Israel, we obtain adverse simulated effects of climate change on farm profits, food prices and consumer’s surplus, which are considerably lower compared to the case in which price-feedback effects on agricultural supply are overlooked.

Suggested Citation

  • Kan, Iddo & Kimhi, Ayal & Kaminski, Jonathan, 2014. "The impact of climate change on agriculture and food prices: combining a micro land use model and a market equilibrium model," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 183024, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae14:183024
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.183024
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Douglas J. Miller & Andrew J. Plantinga, 1999. "Modeling Land Use Decisions with Aggregate Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(1), pages 180-194.
    2. Cline, William R, 1996. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1309-1311, December.
    3. Michetti, Melania, 2012. "Modelling Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry in Climate Change: A Review of Major Approaches," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 130546, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    4. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    5. Alain Carpentier & Elodie Letort, 2009. "Modeling acreage decisions within the multinomial Logit framework," Working Papers SMART - LERECO 09-17, INRA UMR SMART-LERECO.
    6. Fleischer, Aliza & Lichtman, Ivgenia & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "Climate change, irrigation, and Israeli agriculture: Will warming be harmful?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 508-515, April.
    7. Jonathan Kaminski & Iddo Kan & Aliza Fleischer, 2013. "A Structural Land-Use Analysis of Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: A Proactive Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(1), pages 70-93.
    8. Seo, S. Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "An analysis of crop choice: Adapting to climate change in South American farms," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 109-116, August.
    9. Papke, Leslie E & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1996. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 619-632, Nov.-Dec..
    10. Maarten L. Buis, 2008. "FMLOGIT: Stata module fitting a fractional multinomial logit model by quasi maximum likelihood," Statistical Software Components S456976, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 16 Feb 2017.
    11. Miller, Douglas & Plantinga, Andrew J., 1999. "Modeling Land Use Decisions with Aggregate Data," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1487, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use;

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