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The distributional effects of NAFTA in Mexico: evidence from a panel of municipalities

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  • Baylis, Katherine R.
  • Garduno-Rivera, Rafael
  • Piras, Gianfranco

Abstract

This paper studies the regional distribution of the benefits from trade in Mexico after NAFTA. Specifically, we ask whether or not NAFTA has increased the concentration of economic activity in Mexico. Unlike previous work which uses state-level data, we identify the effect of NAFTA on economic activity at the municipal level allowing us to observe detailed growth patterns across space. Further, to explicitly identify the effect of the trade agreement, we compare results for growth in traded and non-traded sectors. Given the spatial nature of these data, we make explicit use of spatial econometrics methods. We find that NAFTA caused the wealthy regions nearest to the border to grow faster than others, increasing regional disparity. Second, we find that larger municipalities experienced greater per-capita economic benefits from NAFTA. This effect is particularly noticeable in the north. Somewhat surprisingly, we find that regions with a less literate workforce and worse infrastructure grew faster than other areas after the trade agreement, decreasing regional disparity. We notice these redistributive effects occur primarily in the non-traded sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Baylis, Katherine R. & Garduno-Rivera, Rafael & Piras, Gianfranco, 2009. "The distributional effects of NAFTA in Mexico: evidence from a panel of municipalities," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49463, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:49463
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.49463
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    2. Rolando I. Valdez & Francisco García-Fernández, 2022. "The distribution of wage inequality across municipalities in Mexico: a spatial quantile regression approach," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(3), pages 669-697, September.
    3. Álvarez, Antonio & Garduño, Rafael & Núñez, Héctor, 2016. "Modelling the effect of crime on economic activity: The case of Mexican states," Efficiency Series Papers 2016/01, University of Oviedo, Department of Economics, Oviedo Efficiency Group (OEG).
    4. World Bank, 2013. "Growth without Borders : A Regional Growth Pole Diagnostic for Southern Africa," World Bank Publications - Reports 16708, The World Bank Group.
    5. Gregory BROCK & Constantin OGLOBLIN, 2015. "A Stochastic Walk Down Mexico’S Mesoamerican Frontier, 1990-2011," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 15(2), pages 99-114.
    6. Hector M. Nuñez & Dusan Paredes & Rafael Garduño-Rivera, 2017. "Is crime in Mexico a disamenity? Evidence from a hedonic valuation approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 59(1), pages 171-187, July.
    7. Gregory Brock, 2020. "The real Oaxaca decomposition: convergence within Mexico’s Oaxaca region in the twenty-first century—Do types of crime and religious belief matter?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 543-569, November.
    8. Fonseca Felipe J. & Llamosas-Rosas Irving & Rangel González Erick, 2018. "Economic Liberalization and External Shocks. The Hypothesis of Convergence for the Mexican States, 1994-2015," Working Papers 2018-26, Banco de México.
    9. Rafael Garduño-Rivera, 2013. "Factors that Influence Women’s Economic Participation in Mexico," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(4, Cierre), pages 541-564.
    10. Alberto Díaz Dapena & Esteban Fernández Vázquez & Rafael Garduño Rivera & Fernando Rubiera Morollón, 2015. "Does Trade Imply Convergence? Analyzing The Effect of NAFTA on The Local Convergence in Mexico," Working papers DTE 591, CIDE, División de Economía.
    11. Antonio Alvarez & Rafael Garduño-Rivera & Hector M. Nuñez, 2017. "Mexico's North-South divide: The regional distribution of state inefficiency 1988–2008," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(4), pages 843-858, November.
    12. Garduno-Rivera, Rafael, 2010. "Effect of NAFTA on Mexico's Income Distribution in the Presence of Migration," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61895, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Rut Atayde & Rafael Garduño & Eduardo Robles & Pluvia Zúñiga, 2021. "Market competition and firm productivity and innovation: Responses in Mexican manufacturing industries," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 1185-1214, August.
    14. Garduno-Rivera, Rafael & Baylis, Katherine R., 2012. "Effect of Tariff Liberalization on Mexico’s Income Distribution in the presence of Migration," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124740, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Celbis, Mehmet Guney & Wong, Pui-hang & Guznajeva, Tatjana, 2018. "The Eurasian customs union and the economic geography of Belarus: A panel convergence approach," MERIT Working Papers 2018-029, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    16. Hernandez-Trillo, Fausto, 2016. "Poverty Alleviation in Federal Systems: The Case of México," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 204-214.
    17. Song, Tao & Cieslik, Andrzej, 2020. "The effects of free trade agreements on regional wages in China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(3).
    18. Farole, Thomas, 2012. "Competitiveness and Connectivity: Integrating Lagging Regions in Global Markets," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 93, pages 1-5, October.
    19. Henderson, Joanne & Baylis, Katherine R. & Barton, Jason, 2010. "Conversion from Staple to Cash Crop Production in Mexico After NAFTA: Effects of PROCAMPO and Credit Constraints," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61525, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Community/Rural/Urban Development; International Development; International Relations/Trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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