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Couplage Ou Découplage Des Cycles Économiques Des Mena : Une Approche En Termes De Modèle A Facteurs Dynamiques

  • Kamel GARFA

    ()

    (MOFID, Université de Sousse, Tunisie)

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    Les cycles économiques des pays d’Afrique du Nord et du Moyen-Orient (MENA) sont-ils similaires ou non et quels sont les facteurs qui les con-ditionnent ? Notre méthode consiste à estimer plusieurs spécifications d’un modèle à facteurs dynamiques. Elle permet d'évaluer les poids respectifs des chocs idiosyncrasiques, des chocs communs et de la transmission des chocs spécifiques (effets "spillovers") dans l'explication des cycles économiques des MENA. Si l'on note un début de convergence au sein de cette région, les pays exportateurs de pétrole connaissent des cycles distincts des autres pays. Les épisodes de symétrie des MENA sont conduits par des facteurs extrarégionaux plus que par des interdépendances intra-régionales. La zone MENA est significativement affectée par les dynamiques économiques des grands pays industrialisés. En retour, le facteur spécifique à la zone MENA ne semble induire aucun effet significatif sur les pays du G7.

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    File URL: http://region-developpement.univ-tln.fr/fr/pdf/R38/9_Garfa.pdf
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    Article provided by Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var in its journal Région et Développement.

    Volume (Year): 38 (2013)
    Issue (Month): ()
    Pages: 225-247

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    Handle: RePEc:tou:journl:v:38:y:2013:p:225-247
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    1. HIRATA Hideaki & Ayhan KOSE & Christopher OTROK, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Discussion papers 13004, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1998. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Intervention: Implications of the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 1982, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Sahin, Hasan, 2006. "MENA countries as optimal currency areas: Reality or dream," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 511-521, July.
    4. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    5. Moneta, Fabio & Rüffer, Rasmus, 2009. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12, January.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, 09.
    7. Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Rüffer, Rasmus & Vitale, Giovanni, 2003. "Is Economic Activity in the G7 Synchronized? Common Shocks versus Spillover Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 4119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    9. Crosby, Mark, 2003. "Business cycle correlations in Asia-Pacific," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 35-44, July.
    10. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
    11. Lambert, F. & Chavy-Martin, A-C., 2008. "Couplage ou découplage ? Une analyse de la corrélation des cycles entre pays," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 171, pages 53-67.
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