Analysis of the impact mechanism of the China-EU geographical indications agreement policy on agricultural product Exports

Geographical indications signify the distinct quality and reputation of regional specialty agricultural products, providing a stabilizing effect on agricultural exports. This study mathematically integrates relevant literature to analyze the mechanisms through which geographical indication certification policies influence agricultural product exports. Using export data from China Customs between 2009 and 2020, an empirical analysis through a multi-period difference-in-differences model evaluates the impact of China-EU mutual recognition of geographical indications on China's agricultural exports. Findings reveal that such recognition significantly enhances the binary margins of China's agricultural exports, with stronger effects observed on intensive margins. The robustness of these results is confirmed through placebo checks, counterfactual analyses, and extensive testing. Product-level analyses show that the recognition impacts fruit exports mainly through the intensive margin, while vegetable exports are promoted via the extensive margin. Mechanism evaluations illustrate that this influence arises through 'dual circulation': domestically, by enhancing local demand and market leverage, and internationally, by improving product quality, reducing trade barriers, signaling demand, and boosting import interest. An evaluation using a six-dimensional framework and the 5E method underscores the policy's effectiveness in terms of economic impact, efficiency, and ethics, though challenges in fairness persist.