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Returns on Investments in Energy-saving Technologies Under Energy Price Uncertainty in Dutch Greenhouse Horticulture

  • Paul Diederen

    ()

  • Frank van Tongeren
  • Hennie van der Veen

Conventional net presentvalue calculations evaluating the profitabilityof investments in energy-saving technologies inDutch horticultural outlays predict a muchhigher rate of adoption of these technologiesthan is actually observed. This paper tries toexplain this gap by applying a real optionsframework. Hurdle rates for investments in twotypes of energy-saving technology are estimatedusing simulated future revenue streams, givenuncertainty regarding energy prices and energytax policies. Hurdle rates found in this wayare on average about 1.76 times the hurdlerates that result from net present valuecalculations. Furthermore, this paper tests thepredictive value of the theory by estimating alogit model. This model relates the incidenceof having invested in an energy-savingtechnology to the difference between the returnon investment and the hurdle rate. Thepredictive power turns out to be encouraging,as the statistical tests indicate that higherhurdle rates tend to reduce rates of technologyadoption. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1023617318184
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Article provided by European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists in its journal Environmental and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 24 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 379-394

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Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:24:y:2003:i:4:p:379-394
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  1. de Almeida, Edmar Luiz Fagundes, 1998. "Energy efficiency and the limits of market forces: The example of the electric motor market in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 643-653, July.
  2. Hassett, Kevin A. & Metcalf, Gilbert E., 1993. "Energy conservation investment : Do consumers discount the future correctly?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 710-716, June.
  3. Grenadier, Steven R. & Weiss, Allen M., 1997. "Investment in technological innovations: An option pricing approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 397-416, June.
  4. DeCanio, Stephen J, 1998. "The efficiency paradox: bureaucratic and organizational barriers to profitable energy-saving investments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 441-454, April.
  5. Daan van Soest & Erwin Bulte, 2001. "Does the Energy-Efficiency Paradox Exist? Technological Progress and Uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 18(1), pages 101-112, January.
  6. Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
  7. Sanstad, Alan H & Blumstein, Carl & Stoft, Steven E, 1995. "How high are option values in energy-efficiency investments?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 739-743, September.
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