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An Empirical Test of a Contingent Claims Lease Valuation Model


  • Richard Stanton

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Nancy Wallace

    () (University of California, Berkeley)


Despite the importance of leases in the US economy, and the existence of several theoretical lease pricing models, there has been little systematic attempt to estimate these models. This paper proposes a simple no-arbitrage based lease pricing model, and estimates it using a large proprietary data set of leases on several property types. We also define a new measure, the Option-Adjusted Lease Spread, or OALS (analogous to an option’s implied volatility, or a mortgage-backed security’s Option-Adjusted Spread), that allows us to compare leases with different maturities and contract terms on a consistent basis. We find sizeable pricing errors that cannot be explained using interest rates, lease maturity, or information on the options embedded in the contracts. This suggests either that there are significant mispricings in the market for real estate leases, or that lease terms depend heavily on unobservable, property-specific characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Stanton & Nancy Wallace, 2009. "An Empirical Test of a Contingent Claims Lease Valuation Model," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(1), pages 1-26.
  • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:31:n:1:2009:p:1-26

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hendershott, Patric H & Ward, Charles W R, 2003. "Valuing and Pricing Retail Leases with Renewal and Overage Options," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 223-240, March-May.
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    3. Peter Englund & Åke Gunnelin & Martin Hoesli & Bo Söderberg, 2004. "Implicit Forward Rents as Predictors of Future Rents," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 183-215, June.
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    5. Xavier Gabaix & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Olivier Vigneron, 2007. "Limits of Arbitrage: Theory and Evidence from the Mortgage-Backed Securities Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 557-595, April.
    6. Benjamin, John D. & Boyle, Glenn W. & Sirmans, C. F., 1992. "Price discrimination in shopping center leases," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 299-317, November.
    7. Grenadier, Steven R., 1995. "Valuing lease contracts A real-options approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 297-331, July.
    8. Schallheim, James S. & Johnson, Ramon E. & Lease, Ronald C. & McConnell, John J., 1987. "The determinants of yields on financial leasing contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 45-67, September.
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    11. John L. Glascock & Shirin Jahanian & C. F. Sirmans, 1990. "An Analysis of Office Market Rents: Some Empirical Evidence," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 105-119.
    12. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    13. Schallheim, James S & McConnell, John J, 1985. " A Model for the Determination of "Fair" Premiums on Lease Cancellation Insurance Policies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(5), pages 1439-1457, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miki Seko & Kazuto Sumita & Jiro Yoshida, 2012. "Downward-Sloping Term Structure of Lease Rates: A Puzzle," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2011-042, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
    2. Amédée-Manesme, Charles-Olivier & des Rosiers, François & Grégoire, Philippe, 2015. "The pricing of embedded lease options," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 215-220.
    3. Jiro Yoshida & Miki Seko & Kazuto Sumita, 2016. "The Rent Term Premium for Cancellable Leases," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 480-511, May.
    4. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Francois Des Rosiers & Philippe Grégoire, 2017. "Commercial leases, terms and options in the light of game theory," ERES eres2017_175, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    5. Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias & Hüttel, Silke, 2015. "The term structure of land lease rates," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 201664, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services


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