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Rental Expectations and the Term Structure of Lease Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Clapham, Eric

    () (Stockholm School of Economics)

  • Gunnelin, Åke

    () (Swedish Institute for Financial Research)

Abstract

We consider the term structure of lease rates in a general setting where both the interest rate and the short rent are stochastic. Our framework is applicable to any leasing market, but we focus on real estate. We find that the “expectations hypothesis” of lease rates, i.e. that the forward rent is an unbiased estimator of the future short rent, requires similar assumptions as in interest rate theory to hold. To study the magnitude of the bias we parameterize our general framework. The simulations show that different realistic parameter values for risk aversion and interest rate stochastics can generate widely different shapes of the rental term structure, holding the objective rental expectations constant. As a result, an expected increase in rent may very well be consistent with a downward-sloping term structure and vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Clapham, Eric & Gunnelin, Åke, 2003. "Rental Expectations and the Term Structure of Lease Rates," SIFR Research Report Series 16, Institute for Financial Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:sifrwp:0016
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grenadier, Steven R., 1995. "Valuing lease contracts A real-options approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 297-331, July.
    2. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    3. Miller, Merton H & Upton, Charles W, 1976. "Leasing, Buying, and the Cost of Capital Services," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(3), pages 761-786, June.
    4. Gunnelin, Åke & Söderberg, Bo, 2002. "Term Structures in the Office Rental Market in Stockholm," SIFR Research Report Series 6, Institute for Financial Research.
    5. McConnell, John J. & Schallheim, James S., 1983. "Valuation of asset leasing contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 237-261, August.
    6. Lo, Andrew W & Wang, Jiang, 1995. " Implementing Option Pricing Models When Asset Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 87-129, March.
    7. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1981. "A Re-examination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 769-799, September.
    8. Steven R. Grenadier, 2003. "An Equilibrium Analysis of Real Estate," NBER Working Papers 9475, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Miceli, Thomas J. & Sirmans, C. F., 1999. "Tenant Turnover, Rental Contracts, and Self-Selection," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 301-311, December.
    10. Peter Englund & Åke Gunnelin & Martin Hoesli & Bo Söderberg, 2004. "Implicit Forward Rents as Predictors of Future Rents," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 183-215, June.
    11. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1997. " An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1287-1321, September.
    12. Patric H. Hendershott & Colin M. Lizieri & George A. Matysiak, 1999. "The Workings of the London Office Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 365-387.
    13. Grenadier, Steven R., 1996. "Leasing and credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 333-364, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Miki Seko & Kazuto Sumita & Jiro Yoshida, 2012. "Downward-Sloping Term Structure of Lease Rates: A Puzzle," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2011-042, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
    2. Jonathan A. Wiley, 2014. "Gross Lease Premiums," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 606-626, September.
    3. Brent Ambrose & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Credit Risk and the Term Structure of Lease Rates: A Reduced Form Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 281-298, October.
    4. Golbeck, Steven & Linetsky, Vadim, 2013. "Asset financing with credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 43-59.
    5. Clark, David & Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2016. "Determinants of industrial property rents in the Chicago metropolitan area," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 34-45.
    6. Shaun Bond & Pavlos Loizou & Patrick McAllister, 2008. "Lease Maturity and Initial Rent: Is There a Term Structure for UK Commercial Property Leases?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 451-469, May.
    7. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:9:p:3203-:d:168422 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jiro Yoshida & Miki Seko & Kazuto Sumita, 2016. "The Rent Term Premium for Cancellable Leases," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 480-511, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term structure of lease rates; Rental expectations; Expectations hypothesis; Lease valuation;

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General

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