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Downward-Sloping Term Structure of Lease Rates: A Puzzle

Author

Listed:
  • Miki Seko

    (Faculty of Economics, Keio University)

  • Kazuto Sumita

    (Department of Economics, Kanazawa Seiryo University)

  • Jiro Yoshida

    (Smeal College of Business, The Pennsylvania State University)

Abstract

A model of the term structure of lease rates in a frictionless economy is developed and its predictions are compared with data on residential leases in Japan. The model shows that the initial lease rate for a cancellable lease must be set higher than that for a non-cancellable lease because the former rate will be repeatedly adjusted downward when the market rent decreases. More importantly, the term structure of lease rates is always upward-sloping for cancellable leases. Empirical findings show a sharp contrast with the theory. Fixed-term lease rates are often higher than open-ended long-term lease rates. Moreover, in the fixed-term lease sample, the term structure of lease rates is downward-sloping. The term structure is also heterogeneous by tenant's income.

Suggested Citation

  • Miki Seko & Kazuto Sumita & Jiro Yoshida, 2012. "Downward-Sloping Term Structure of Lease Rates: A Puzzle," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2011-042, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
    • Handle: RePEc:kei:dpaper:2011-042
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eric Clapham & Åke Gunnelin, 2003. "Rental Expectations and the Term Structure of Lease Rates," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 647-670, December.
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    4. Iwata, Shinichiro, 2002. "The Japanese Tenant Protection Law and Asymmetric Information on Tenure Length," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 125-151, June.
    5. Brent Ambrose & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Credit Risk and the Term Structure of Lease Rates: A Reduced Form Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 281-298, October.
    6. Agarwal, Sumit & Ambrose, Brent W. & Huang, Hongming & Yildirim, Yildiray, 2011. "The Term Structure of Lease Rates with Endogenous Default Triggers and Tenant Capital Structure: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 553-584, April.
    7. Grenadier, Steven R., 1995. "Valuing lease contracts A real-options approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 297-331, July.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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