Downward-sloping term structure of lease rates: a puzzle
A model of the term structure of lease rates in a frictionless economy is developed and its predictions are compared with data on residential leases in Japan. The model shows that the initial lease rate for a cancellable lease must be set higher than that for a non-cancellable lease because the former rate will be repeatedly adjusted downward when the market rent decreases. More importantly, the term structure of lease rates is always upward-sloping for cancellable leases. Empirical findings show a sharp contrast with the theory. Fixed-term lease rates are often higher than open-ended long-term lease rates. Moreover, in the fixed-term lease sample, the term structure of lease rates is downward-sloping. The term structure is also heterogeneous by tenant’s income.
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- Miki Seko & Kazuto Sumita, 2007. "Japanese Housing Tenure Choice and Welfare Implications after the Revision of the Tenant Protection Law," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 357-383, October.
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