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Rental Expectations and the Term Structure of Lease Rates

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  • Eric Clapham
  • Åke Gunnelin

Abstract

We consider the term structure of lease rates in a general setting where both rents and interest rates are stochastic. The framework is applicable to any leasing market, but we focus on real estate. We find that the ``expectations hypothesis", that is, forward rates are unbiased estimators of future rents, requires similar assumptions as in interest rate theory to hold. To study bias magnitude, simulations are performed using a parameterization of the general framework. Different realistic values for risk aversion and interest rate stochastics can generate widely different shapes of the term structure, holding objective expectations constant. Thus an expected increase in rent is consistent with a downward‐sloping term structure and vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Clapham & Åke Gunnelin, 2003. "Rental Expectations and the Term Structure of Lease Rates," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 647-670, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:31:y:2003:i:4:p:647-670
    DOI: 10.1046/j.1080-8620.2003.00080.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Englund & Åke Gunnelin & Martin Hoesli & Bo Söderberg, 2004. "Implicit Forward Rents as Predictors of Future Rents," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 183-215, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miki Seko & Kazuto Sumita & Jiro Yoshida, 2012. "Downward-Sloping Term Structure of Lease Rates: A Puzzle," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2011-042, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
    2. Clark, David & Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2016. "Determinants of industrial property rents in the Chicago metropolitan area," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 34-45.
    3. Maria Trojanek & Marcin Anholcer & Audrius Banaitis & Radoslaw Trojanek, 2018. "A Generalised Model of Ground Lease Pricing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-21, September.
    4. Jonathan A. Wiley, 2014. "Gross Lease Premiums," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 606-626, September.
    5. Brent Ambrose & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Credit Risk and the Term Structure of Lease Rates: A Reduced Form Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 281-298, October.
    6. Golbeck, Steven & Linetsky, Vadim, 2013. "Asset financing with credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 43-59.
    7. Shaun Bond & Pavlos Loizou & Patrick McAllister, 2008. "Lease Maturity and Initial Rent: Is There a Term Structure for UK Commercial Property Leases?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 451-469, May.
    8. Rajesh, R. & Agariya, Arun Kumar & Rajendran, Chandrasekharan, 2021. "Predicting resilience in retailing using grey theory and moving probability based Markov models," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Chuang-Chang Chang & Hsiao-Wei Ho & Henry Hongren Huang & Yildiray Yildirim, 2024. "A reduced-form model for lease contract valuation with embedded options," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 841-864, February.

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