Implicit Forward Rents as Predictors of Future Rents
This paper investigates the relation between the term structure of rents and future spot rents. A rich database of office rental agreements for various maturities is used to estimate the term structure of rents, and from this structure implicit forward rents are extracted. The data pertain to commercial properties in the three largest Swedish cities for the period 1998-2002. A positive relation between forward and spot rents is found in some regions, but forward rents underestimate future rent levels. Another contribution of the paper lies in the area of rental index construction. We provide evidence that rental indices should not only be quality-constant (i.e. indices should not only control for the characteristics of rental units), but should also be maturity-constant.
|Date of creation:||15 Nov 2002|
|Publication status:||Published in Real Estate Economics, 2004, pages 183-215.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Institute for Financial Research Drottninggatan 89, SE-113 60 Stockholm, Sweden|
Web page: http://www.sifr.org/
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- Fama, Eugene F., 1976. "Forward rates as predictors of future spot rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 361-377, October.