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Implicit Forward Rents as Predictors of Future Rents

Author

Listed:
  • Peter ENGLUND

    (Stockholm Institute for Financial Research, Stockholm School of Economics)

  • Åke GUNNELIN

    (Stockholm Institute for Financial Research)

  • Martin HOESLI

    (HEC-University of Geneva, FAME, University of Aberdeen (Business School))

  • Bo SÖDERBERG

    (Royal Institute of Technology)

Abstract

This paper investigates the relation between the term structure of rents and future spot rents. A rich database of office rental agreements for various maturities is used to estimate the term structure of rents, and from this structure implicit forward rents are extracted. The data pertain to commercial properties in the three largest Swedish cities for the period 1998-2002. A positive relation between forward and spot rents is found in some regions, but forward rents underestimate future rent levels. Another contribution of the paper lies in the area of rental index construction. We provide evidence that rental indices should not only be quality-constant (i.e. indices should not only control for the characteristics of rental units), but should also be maturity-constant.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter ENGLUND & Åke GUNNELIN & Martin HOESLI & Bo SÖDERBERG, 2002. "Implicit Forward Rents as Predictors of Future Rents," FAME Research Paper Series rp59, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    • Handle: RePEc:fam:rpseri:rp59
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    File URL: http://www.swissfinanceinstitute.ch/rp59.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frederick R. Macaulay, 1938. "Some Theoretical Problems Suggested by the Movements of Interest Rates, Bond Yields and Stock Prices in the United States since 1856," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number maca38-1, March.
    2. Fama, Eugene F., 1976. "Forward rates as predictors of future spot rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 361-377, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin E. Hermalin & Michael S. Weisbach, 2012. "Information Disclosure and Corporate Governance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 195-234, February.
    2. Peter Englund & Ake Gunnelin & Patric H. Hendershott & Bo Soderberg, 2005. "Adjustment in Property Space Markets: Estimates from the Stockholm Office Market," NBER Working Papers 11345, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Eric Clapham & Åke Gunnelin, 2003. "Rental Expectations and the Term Structure of Lease Rates," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 647-670, December.
    4. Clark, David & Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2016. "Determinants of industrial property rents in the Chicago metropolitan area," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 34-45.
    5. Clapham, Eric & Gunnelin, Åke, 2003. "Rental Expectations and the Term Structure of Lease Rates," SIFR Research Report Series 16, Institute for Financial Research.
    6. Richard Stanton & Nancy Wallace, 2009. "An Empirical Test of a Contingent Claims Lease Valuation Model," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(1), pages 1-26.
    7. Rydqvist, Kristian, 2010. "Tax Arbitrage with Risk and Effort Aversion - Swedish Lottery Bonds 1970-1990," SIFR Research Report Series 70, Institute for Financial Research.
    8. Franz Fuerst & Patrick McAllister, 2008. "Green Noise or Green Value? Measuring the Price Effects of Environmental Certification in Commercial Buildings," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2008-09, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    9. Jonathan A. Wiley, 2014. "Gross Lease Premiums," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 606-626, September.
    10. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Patrick Wai Yin Cheung & Erica Jiajia Ding, 2008. "Intra-metropolitan Office Price and Trading Volume Dynamics: Evidence from Hong Kong," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 11(2), pages 47-74.
    11. Martijn (M.I.) Droes & Boris Ziermans & Philip Koppels, 2017. "Information Asymmetry, Lease Incentives, and the Role of Advisors in the Market for Commercial Real Estate," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-106/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Shaun Bond & Pavlos Loizou & Patrick McAllister, 2008. "Lease Maturity and Initial Rent: Is There a Term Structure for UK Commercial Property Leases?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 451-469, May.
    13. Dreber, Anna & Rand, David G. & Garcia, Justin R. & Wernerfelt, Nils & Lum, J. Koji & Zeckhauser, Richard, 2010. "Dopamine and Risk Preferences in Different Domains," Working Paper Series rwp10-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    14. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Francois Des Rosiers & Philippe Grégoire, 2017. "Commercial leases, terms and options in the light of game theory," ERES eres2017_175, European Real Estate Society (ERES).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term Structure; Expectations Hypothesis; Forward Rents; Rental Index Construction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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