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Valuing and Pricing Retail Leases with Renewal and Overage Options

  • Patric H. Hendershott
  • Charles W.R. Ward

We consider retail leases with landlord overages options, with tenant renewal options, with both and with neither. We illustrate how the ratio of initial expected sales to the sales threshold can be manipulated to equate the value of the landlord overage options to that of the tenant renewal option at the same initial rent. As a result, not only are the values of the dual option overage plus renewal lease and no option leases are equal, but the cumulative distributions of potential IRRs on the two leases are nearly identical, suggesting that these leases are equally attractive to risk-adverse investors and thus that the same risky discount rate can be used in valuing the leases. The analysis is carried out in a risk-neutral framework, and sensitivity of the results to interest rate uncertainty, real sales volatility and growth, and the required risk premium on retail real estate is shown. The appropriate risky discount rate for the overage lease is calculated to be 75 to 160 basis points greater than that for the renewal lease.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w9214.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9214.

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Date of creation: Sep 2002
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Publication status: published as Hendershott, Patric H. and Charles W. R. Ward. "Valuing And Pricing Retail Leases With Renewal And Overage Options," Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2003, v26(2-3,Mar), 223-240.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9214
Note: AP
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  1. Brueckner, Jan K, 1993. "Inter-store Externalities and Space Allocation in Shopping Centers," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 5-16, July.
  2. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert, 1999. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity, and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt96r560pg, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  3. Peter F. Cowell & Henry J. Munneke, 1998. "Percentage Leases and the Advantages of Regional Malls," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 15(3), pages 239-252.
  4. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  5. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1993. "One-Factor Interest-Rate Models and the Valuation of Interest-Rate Derivative Securities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(02), pages 235-254, June.
  6. Miceli, Thomas J. & Sirmans, C. F., 1995. "Contracting with spatial externalities and agency problems The case of retail leases," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 355-372, June.
  7. Grenadier, Steven R., 1995. "Valuing lease contracts A real-options approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 297-331, July.
  8. McConnell, John J. & Schallheim, James S., 1983. "Valuation of asset leasing contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 237-261, August.
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