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An Equilibrium Analysis of Real Estate Leases

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  • Steven R. Grenadier

    (Graduate School of Business, Stanford University)

Abstract

This article provides a unified equilibrium approach to valuing commercial real estate leases. Using a game-theoretic variant of real options analysis, the underlying real estate asset market is modeled as a continuous-time Nash equilibrium, where developers make construction decisions under demand uncertainty. Then, using the economic notion that leasing represents the purchase of the use of the asset over a specified time, I use a contingent-claims approach to value many of the most common leasing arrangements. The model provides equilibrium values for purchase options, forward leases, gross and net leases, cancellation options, ground leases, escalation clauses, lease concessions, and sale-leasebacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven R. Grenadier, 2005. "An Equilibrium Analysis of Real Estate Leases," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1173-1214, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:78:y:2005:i:4:p:1173-1214
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/430858
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bracke, Philippe & Pinchbeck, Ted & Wyatt, James, 2014. "The time value of housing: historical evidence from London residential leases," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64504, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Miki Seko & Kazuto Sumita & Jiro Yoshida, 2012. "Downward-Sloping Term Structure of Lease Rates: A Puzzle," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2011-042, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
    3. Jonathan A. Wiley, 2014. "Gross Lease Premiums," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 606-626, September.
    4. Honglin Wang & Fan Yu & Yinggang Zhou, 2013. "Rental Rates under Housing Price Uncertainty: A Real Options Approach," Working Papers 242013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    5. Shinichiro Iwata & Hisaki Yamaga, 2009. "Land Tenure Security and Home Maintenance: Evidence from Japan," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 85(3), pages 429-441.
    6. Noriko Ashiya, 2015. "Determinants of Potential Seller/Lessee Benefits in Sale¡VLeaseback Transactions," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 89-112.
    7. Maria Ibanez & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2013. "Commercial Property Rent Dynamics in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: An Examination of Office, Industrial, Flex and Retail Space," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 232-259, February.
    8. Jyh-Bang Jou & Tan (Charlene) Lee, 2009. "How Does a Development Moratorium Affect Development Timing Choices and Land Values?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 301-315, October.
    9. Quigley, Neil & Boyle, Glenn & Guthrie, Graeme, 2008. "Estimating Implied Valuation Parameters: Extension and Application to Ground Lease Rentals," Working Paper Series 4012, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    10. Jiro Yoshida & Miki Seko & Kazuto Sumita, 2016. "The Rent Term Premium for Cancellable Leases," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 480-511, May.
    11. Anglin, Paul M. & Dale-Johnson, David & Gao, Yanmin & Zhu, Guozhong, 2014. "Patterns of growth in Chinese cities: Implications of the land lease," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 87-107.
    12. James Shilling & C. Sirmans & Barrett Slade, 2013. "Who Says there is a High Consensus Among Analysts when Market Uncertainty is High? Some New Evidence from the Commercial Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 688-718, November.
    13. Robert H. Edelstein & Peng Liu, 2016. "The Economics of Commercial Real Estate Preleasing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 200-217, August.

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