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Cryptocurrencies, technological and market activities: Tango for three?

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  • Vlachou, Maria
  • Konstantakis, Konstantinos N.
  • Drivas, Kyriakos
  • Michaelides, Panayotis G.

Abstract

The rapid evolution of the cryptocurrency market has sparked a debate on whether technological innovations drive market returns or if speculative market phases fuel innovation. This study investigates the complex interplay between technological advancements, market activities, and cryptocurrency returns by employing Frequency Domain Spectral Causality Analysis (FDSCA) to uncover the directional influences and temporal dynamics of these relationships. We construct a comprehensive dataset covering cryptocurrency market capitalization, patents, and trademarks, spanning from 2014 to the end of 2022. Our analysis captures the cyclical nature of the cryptocurrency market, differentiating between bull and bear phases. Our findings reveal a dynamic causal structure: during bear markets, technological advancements drive market returns, whereas in bull markets, returns fuel commercialization efforts, but exhibit weaker links to technological innovation. Our results have important policy implications, emphasizing the need for regulatory frameworks that support sustainable technological development beyond speculative cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Vlachou, Maria & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Drivas, Kyriakos & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2026. "Cryptocurrencies, technological and market activities: Tango for three?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:223:y:2026:i:c:s0040162525004834
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124452
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