IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v220y2025ics0040162525003609.html

Understanding mass-market electric vehicle adoption: Integrating diffusion of innovation theory with risk mitigation strategy in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Enkel, Ellen
  • Wintgens, Sander

Abstract

The adoption of electric vehicles into the so-called mass market across European countries reveals significant disparities, with Germany lagging behind peers such as Sweden and the Netherlands. This research investigates the challenges of transitioning new technology, exemplified by electric vehicles, to be adopted by the early and late majority through the lens of Rogers' Diffusion of Innovation theory. Following the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT), this study reveals that performance expectancy, effort expectancy and risk mitigation significantly influence the behavioral intention to adopt electric vehicles among the early and late majority. This study incorporates novel risk mitigation strategies combined in the non-ownership business model carsharing for electric vehicles, to address perceived financial and functional risks associated with the adoption of electric vehicles, relevant for the targeted adoption group. The data was collected from 519 representatives of the early and late majority sample in Germany. This research contributes to the theoretical understanding of perceived risks and suitable risk mitigation strategies in technology adoption and offers insights into new distinct characteristics of the early and late majority adoption group, relevant to improve the accuracy of forecasting models aimed at predicting technology diffusion.

Suggested Citation

  • Enkel, Ellen & Wintgens, Sander, 2025. "Understanding mass-market electric vehicle adoption: Integrating diffusion of innovation theory with risk mitigation strategy in Germany," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:220:y:2025:i:c:s0040162525003609
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124329
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162525003609
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124329?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hong, Ilyoo B., 2015. "Understanding the consumer's online merchant selection process: The roles of product involvement, perceived risk, and trust expectation," International Journal of Information Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 322-336.
    2. Curtale, Riccardo & Liao, Feixiong & van der Waerden, Peter, 2021. "User acceptance of electric car-sharing services: The case of the Netherlands," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 266-282.
    3. Huang, Youlin & Qian, Lixian & Soopramanien, Didier & Tyfield, David, 2021. "Buy, lease, or share? Consumer preferences for innovative business models in the market for electric vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    4. Faiers, Adam & Neame, Charles, 2006. "Consumer attitudes towards domestic solar power systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(14), pages 1797-1806, September.
    5. Ellen Enkel & Florian Mezger, 2013. "Imitation Processes And Their Application For Business Model Innovation: An Explorative Study," International Journal of Innovation Management (ijim), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(01), pages 1-34.
    6. Makena Coffman & Paul Bernstein & Sherilyn Wee, 2017. "Electric vehicles revisited: a review of factors that affect adoption," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 79-93, January.
    7. Steinhilber, Simone & Wells, Peter & Thankappan, Samarthia, 2013. "Socio-technical inertia: Understanding the barriers to electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 531-539.
    8. Prieto, Marc & Baltas, George & Stan, Valentina, 2017. "Car sharing adoption intention in urban areas: What are the key sociodemographic drivers?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 218-227.
    9. Jaiswal, Deepak & Kaushal, Vikrant & Kant, Rishi & Kumar Singh, Pankaj, 2021. "Consumer adoption intention for electric vehicles: Insights and evidence from Indian sustainable transportation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    10. Green, Erin H. & Skerlos, Steven J. & Winebrake, James J., 2014. "Increasing electric vehicle policy efficiency and effectiveness by reducing mainstream market bias," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 562-566.
    11. Bas, Javier & Cirillo, Cinzia & Cherchi, Elisabetta, 2021. "Classification of potential electric vehicle purchasers: A machine learning approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    12. Featherman, Mauricio & Jia, Shizhen (Jasper) & Califf, Christopher B. & Hajli, Nick, 2021. "The impact of new technologies on consumers beliefs: Reducing the perceived risks of electric vehicle adoption," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    13. Ritu Agarwal & Jayesh Prasad, 1998. "A Conceptual and Operational Definition of Personal Innovativeness in the Domain of Information Technology," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 204-215, June.
    14. Athanasios Polyportis & Nikolaos Pahos, 2025. "Understanding students’ adoption of the ChatGPT chatbot in higher education: the role of anthropomorphism, trust, design novelty and institutional policy," Behaviour and Information Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 315-336, January.
    15. Frank, Björn, 2024. "Consumer preferences for artificial intelligence-enhanced products: Differences across consumer segments, product types, and countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    16. Bohnsack, René & Pinkse, Jonatan & Kolk, Ans, 2014. "Business models for sustainable technologies: Exploring business model evolution in the case of electric vehicles," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 284-300.
    17. Gatignon, Hubert & Robertson, Thomas S, 1985. "A Propositional Inventory for New Diffusion Research," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 11(4), pages 849-867, March.
    18. Cordelia Friesendorf & Luca Uedelhoven, 2021. "Mobility in Germany," SpringerBriefs in Business, Springer, number 978-3-030-71849-7, December.
    19. Plötz, Patrick & Schneider, Uta & Globisch, Joachim & Dütschke, Elisabeth, 2014. "Who will buy electric vehicles? Identifying early adopters in Germany," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 96-109.
    20. Hengstler, Monika & Enkel, Ellen & Duelli, Selina, 2016. "Applied artificial intelligence and trust—The case of autonomous vehicles and medical assistance devices," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 105-120.
    21. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    22. Kieran Mathieson, 1991. "Predicting User Intentions: Comparing the Technology Acceptance Model with the Theory of Planned Behavior," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 2(3), pages 173-191, September.
    23. Ajzen, Icek, 1991. "The theory of planned behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 179-211, December.
    24. Wang, Shanyong & Wang, Jing & Li, Jun & Wang, Jinpeng & Liang, Liang, 2018. "Policy implications for promoting the adoption of electric vehicles: Do consumer’s knowledge, perceived risk and financial incentive policy matter?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 58-69.
    25. Dijk, Marc & Wells, Peter & Kemp, René, 2016. "Will the momentum of the electric car last? Testing an hypothesis on disruptive innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 77-88.
    26. Biresselioglu, Mehmet Efe & Demirbag Kaplan, Melike & Yilmaz, Barbara Katharina, 2018. "Electric mobility in Europe: A comprehensive review of motivators and barriers in decision making processes," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1-13.
    27. Ledna, Catherine & Muratori, Matteo & Brooker, Aaron & Wood, Eric & Greene, David, 2022. "How to support EV adoption: Tradeoffs between charging infrastructure investments and vehicle subsidies in California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    28. Pasaoglu, Guzay & Harrison, Gillian & Jones, Lee & Hill, Andrew & Beaudet, Alexandre & Thiel, Christian, 2016. "A system dynamics based market agent model simulating future powertrain technology transition: Scenarios in the EU light duty vehicle road transport sector," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 133-146.
    29. Yu Wang & Shanyong Wang & Jing Wang & Jiuchang Wei & Chenglin Wang, 2020. "An empirical study of consumers’ intention to use ride-sharing services: using an extended technology acceptance model," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 397-415, February.
    30. Steenkamp, Jan-Benedict E M & Gielens, Katrijn, 2003. "Consumer and Market Drivers of the Trial Probability of New Consumer Packaged Goods," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 30(3), pages 368-384, December.
    31. Michael Ehret & Jochen Wirtz, 2010. "Division of Labor between Firms: Business Services, Non-Ownership-Value and the Rise of the Service Economy," Service Science, INFORMS, vol. 2(3), pages 136-145, September.
    32. Tilman Altenburg & Eike W. Schamp & Ankur Chaudhary, 2016. "The emergence of electromobility: Comparing technological pathways in France, Germany, China and India," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(4), pages 464-475.
    33. Yogesh K. Dwivedi & Nripendra P. Rana & Anand Jeyaraj & Marc Clement & Michael D. Williams, 2019. "Re-examining the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT): Towards a Revised Theoretical Model," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 719-734, June.
    34. Campbell, Margaret C & Goodstein, Ronald C, 2001. "The Moderating Effect of Perceived Risk on Consumers' Evaluations of Product Incongruity: Preference for the Norm," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 28(3), pages 439-449, December.
    35. Haustein, Sonja & Nielsen, Thomas A. Sick, 2016. "European mobility cultures: A survey-based cluster analysis across 28 European countries," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 173-180.
    36. Lévay, Petra Zsuzsa & Drossinos, Yannis & Thiel, Christian, 2017. "The effect of fiscal incentives on market penetration of electric vehicles: A pairwise comparison of total cost of ownership," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 524-533.
    37. Wilson, Charlie & Hargreaves, Tom & Hauxwell-Baldwin, Richard, 2017. "Benefits and risks of smart home technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 72-83.
    38. Elena Higueras-Castillo & Vedant Singh & Virender Singh & Francisco Liébana-Cabanillas, 2024. "Factors affecting adoption intention of electric vehicle: a cross-cultural study," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(11), pages 29293-29329, November.
    39. Zarazua de Rubens, Gerardo, 2019. "Who will buy electric vehicles after early adopters? Using machine learning to identify the electric vehicle mainstream market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 243-254.
    40. Arts, Joep W.C. & Frambach, Ruud T. & Bijmolt, Tammo H.A., 2011. "Generalizations on consumer innovation adoption: A meta-analysis on drivers of intention and behavior," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 134-144.
    41. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Hirsh, Richard F., 2009. "Beyond batteries: An examination of the benefits and barriers to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and a vehicle-to-grid (V2G) transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1095-1103, March.
    42. Bonnín Roca, Jaime & Vaishnav, Parth & Morgan, M.Granger & Mendonça, Joana & Fuchs, Erica, 2017. "When risks cannot be seen: Regulating uncertainty in emerging technologies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(7), pages 1215-1233.
    43. Gnann, Till & Stephens, Thomas S. & Lin, Zhenhong & Plötz, Patrick & Liu, Changzheng & Brokate, Jens, 2018. "What drives the market for plug-in electric vehicles? - A review of international PEV market diffusion models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 158-164.
    44. Shaw, Norman & Eschenbrenner, Brenda & Brand, Benedikt M., 2022. "Towards a Mobile App Diffusion of Innovations model: A multinational study of mobile wallet adoption," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    45. Berkeley, Nigel & Bailey, David & Jones, Andrew & Jarvis, David, 2017. "Assessing the transition towards Battery Electric Vehicles: A Multi-Level Perspective on drivers of, and barriers to, take up," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 320-332.
    46. Jörg Firnkorn & Martin Müller, 2012. "Selling Mobility instead of Cars: New Business Strategies of Automakers and the Impact on Private Vehicle Holding," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 264-280, May.
    47. Debnath, Ramit & Bardhan, Ronita & Reiner, David M. & Miller, J.R., 2021. "Political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental dimensions of electric vehicle adoption in the United States: A social-media interaction analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    48. McFadden, Daniel, 1974. "The measurement of urban travel demand," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 303-328, November.
    49. Ozgur Dedehayir & Roland J. Ortt & Carla Riverola & Francesc Miralles, 2017. "Innovators And Early Adopters In The Diffusion Of Innovations: A Literature Review," International Journal of Innovation Management (ijim), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(08), pages 1-27, December.
    50. Kim, Moon-Koo & Oh, Jeesun & Park, Jong-Hyun & Joo, Changlim, 2018. "Perceived value and adoption intention for electric vehicles in Korea: Moderating effects of environmental traits and government supports," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 799-809.
    51. Frank, Björn & Enkawa, Takao & Schvaneveldt, Shane J. & Herbas Torrico, Boris, 2015. "Antecedents and consequences of innate willingness to pay for innovations: Understanding motivations and consumer preferences of prospective early adopters," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 252-266.
    52. Reinartz, Werner & Haenlein, Michael & Henseler, Jörg, 2009. "An empirical comparison of the efficacy of covariance-based and variance-based SEM," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 332-344.
    53. Vanduy Tran & Shengchuan Zhao & El Bachir Diop & Weiya Song, 2019. "Travelers’ Acceptance of Electric Carsharing Systems in Developing Countries: The Case of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-22, September.
    54. Gary C. Moore & Izak Benbasat, 1991. "Development of an Instrument to Measure the Perceptions of Adopting an Information Technology Innovation," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 2(3), pages 192-222, September.
    55. Dash, Ganesh & Sharma, Kiran & Yadav, Neha, 2023. "The diffusion of mobile payments: Profiling the adopters and non-adopters, Roger's way," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adu-Gyamfi, Gibbson & Asamoah, Ama Nyarkoh & Obuobi, Bright & Nketiah, Emmanuel & Zhang, Ming, 2024. "Electric mobility in an oil-producing developing nation: Empirical assessment of electric vehicle adoption," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    2. Attié, Elodie & Meyer-Waarden, Lars, 2022. "The acceptance and usage of smart connected objects according to adoption stages: an enhanced technology acceptance model integrating the diffusion of innovation, uses and gratification and privacy calculus theories," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    3. Peng, Ruoqing & Tang, Justin Hayse Chiwing G. & Yang, Xiong & Meng, Meng & Zhang, Jie & Zhuge, Chengxiang, 2024. "Investigating the factors influencing the electric vehicle market share: A comparative study of the European Union and United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 355(C).
    4. Adu-Gyamfi, Gibbson & Song, Huaming & Obuobi, Bright & Nketiah, Emmanuel & Wang, Hong & Cudjoe, Dan, 2022. "Who will adopt? Investigating the adoption intention for battery swap technology for electric vehicles," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Jaiswal, Deepak & Deshmukh, Arun Kumar & Thaichon, Park, 2022. "Who will adopt electric vehicles? Segmenting and exemplifying potential buyer heterogeneity and forthcoming research," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Upadhyay, Nitin & Kamble, Aakash, 2023. "Examining Indian consumer pro-environment purchase intention of electric vehicles: Perspective of stimulus-organism-response," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    7. Haider Ali Abbasi & Satirenjit Kaur Johl & Zullina Bt Hussain Shaari & Wajiha Moughal & Muhammad Mazhar & Muhammad Ali Musarat & Waqas Rafiq & Asaad Salam Farooqi & Alexey Borovkov, 2021. "Consumer Motivation by Using Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology towards Electric Vehicles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-22, November.
    8. Adu-Gyamfi, Gibbson & Song, Huaming & Asamoah, Ama Nyarko & Li, Liang & Nketiah, Emmanuel & Obuobi, Bright & Adjei, Mavis & Cudjoe, Dan, 2022. "Towards sustainable vehicular transport: Empirical assessment of battery swap technology adoption in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    9. Curtale, Riccardo & Liao, Feixiong & van der Waerden, Peter, 2021. "User acceptance of electric car-sharing services: The case of the Netherlands," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 266-282.
    10. Li, Jun & Zhang, Ao & Wang, Chengyuan & Wang, Shanyong & Liang, Liang, 2025. "Switching behavior in the adoption of electric vehicle in China: Perspective of push–pull-mooring framework," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    11. San Martín, Héctor & Herrero, Ángel, 2012. "Influence of the user’s psychological factors on the online purchase intention in rural tourism: Integrating innovativeness to the UTAUT framework," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 341-350.
    12. Ye, Fei & Kang, Wanlin & Li, Lixu & Wang, Zhiqiang, 2021. "Why do consumers choose to buy electric vehicles? A paired data analysis of purchase intention configurations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 14-27.
    13. Brückmann, Gracia, 2022. "Test-drives & information might not boost actual battery electric vehicle uptake?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 204-218.
    14. Nguyen-Phuoc, Duy Quy & Truong, Thi Minh & Nguyen, Minh Hieu & Pham, Huong-Giang & Li, Zhi-Chun & Oviedo-Trespalacios, Oscar, 2024. "What factors influence the intention to use electric motorcycles in motorcycle-dominated countries? An empirical study in Vietnam," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 193-204.
    15. Austmann, Leonhard M. & Vigne, Samuel A., 2021. "Does environmental awareness fuel the electric vehicle market? A Twitter keyword analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    16. Sana Akbar Khan, 2017. "Consumer Innovation Adoption Stages and Determinants," Working Papers 03, Venice School of Management - Department of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia.
    17. Elena Higueras-Castillo & Sebastian Molinillo & J. Andres Coca-Stefaniak & Francisco Liébana-Cabanillas, 2020. "Potential Early Adopters of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles in Spain—Towards a Customer Profile," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-18, May.
    18. Petschnig, Martin & Heidenreich, Sven & Spieth, Patrick, 2014. "Innovative alternatives take action – Investigating determinants of alternative fuel vehicle adoption," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 68-83.
    19. Gansser, Oliver Alexander & Reich, Christina Stefanie, 2021. "A new acceptance model for artificial intelligence with extensions to UTAUT2: An empirical study in three segments of application," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    20. Ruyu Xie & Liren An & Nosheena Yasir, 2022. "How Innovative Characteristics Influence Consumers’ Intention to Purchase Electric Vehicle: A Moderating Role of Lifestyle," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-24, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:220:y:2025:i:c:s0040162525003609. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.