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Will the momentum of the electric car last? Testing an hypothesis on disruptive innovation

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  • Dijk, Marc
  • Wells, Peter
  • Kemp, René

Abstract

In this paper we study to what extent electric propulsion is disrupting ‘the order’ in the automotive industry with six extensions to Christensen's notion of disruptive innovation (1997). For decades the automotive sector has relied on the internal combustion engine (ICE) as the established propulsion technology, but due to environmental regulation and geo-political scarcity problems associated with fossil fuel use, electric propulsion is increasingly applied as sole or additional power source.

Suggested Citation

  • Dijk, Marc & Wells, Peter & Kemp, René, 2016. "Will the momentum of the electric car last? Testing an hypothesis on disruptive innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 77-88.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:105:y:2016:i:c:p:77-88
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.01.013
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    Cited by:

    1. Binz, Christian & Truffer, Bernhard, 2017. "Global Innovation Systems—A conceptual framework for innovation dynamics in transnational contexts," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(7), pages 1284-1298.
    2. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Axsen, Jonn, 2018. "Functional, symbolic and societal frames for automobility: Implications for sustainability transitions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 730-746.
    3. Mirzadeh Phirouzabadi, Amir & Savage, David & Blackmore, Karen & Juniper, James, 2020. "The evolution of dynamic interactions between the knowledge development of powertrain systems," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 1-16.
    4. Huotari, Pontus & Järvi, Kati & Kortelainen, Samuli & Huhtamäki, Jukka, 2017. "Winner does not take all: Selective attention and local bias in platform-based markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 313-326.
    5. Andrea Ferloni, 2021. "Transitions as a coevolutionary process: the urban emergence of electric vehicle inventions," GEIST - Geography of Innovation and Sustainability Transitions 2021(10), GEIST Working Paper Series.
    6. Lindberg, Marie Byskov & Markard, Jochen & Andersen, Allan Dahl, 2019. "Policies, actors and sustainability transition pathways: A study of the EU’s energy policy mix," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(10).
    7. Marc Dijk & Eric Iversen & Antje Klitkou & René Kemp & Simon Bolwig & Mads Borup & Peter Møllgaard, 2020. "Forks in the Road to E-Mobility: An Evaluation of Instrument Interaction in National Policy Mixes in Northwest Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-20, January.
    8. Benzidia, Smaïl & Luca, Ruxandra Monica & Boiko, Sergiy, 2021. "Disruptive innovation, business models, and encroachment strategies: Buyer's perspective on electric and hybrid vehicle technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    9. Yongchao Zeng & Peiwu Dong & Yingying Shi & Yang Li, 2018. "On the Disruptive Innovation Strategy of Renewable Energy Technology Diffusion: An Agent-Based Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, November.
    10. Antti Lajunen & Panu Sainio & Lasse Laurila & Jenni Pippuri-Mäkeläinen & Kari Tammi, 2018. "Overview of Powertrain Electrification and Future Scenarios for Non-Road Mobile Machinery," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-22, May.
    11. Erling Holden & Geoffrey Gilpin & David Banister, 2019. "Sustainable Mobility at Thirty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-14, April.
    12. Mura, Matteo & Longo, Mariolina & Toschi, Laura & Zanni, Sara & Visani, Franco & Bianconcini, Silvia, 2021. "The role of geographical scales in sustainability transitions: An empirical investigation of the European industrial context," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    13. Johnstone, Phil & McLeish, Caitriona, 2022. "World wars and sociotechnical change in energy, food, and transport: A deep transitions perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    14. Antonio, Jerome L. & Kanbach, Dominik K., 2023. "Contextual factors of disruptive innovation: A systematic review and framework," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    15. Gruber, Mario, 2020. "An evolutionary perspective on adoption-diffusion theory," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 535-541.
    16. Cicconi, Paolo & Landi, Daniele & Germani, Michele, 2017. "Thermal analysis and simulation of a Li-ion battery pack for a lightweight commercial EV," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 159-177.
    17. Mikel Zubizarreta & Jaione Ganzarain & Jesús Cuadrado & Rafael Lizarralde, 2020. "Evaluating Disruptive Innovation Project Management Capabilities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-22, December.
    18. Thomas Magnusson & Viktor Werner, 2023. "Conceptualisations of incumbent firms in sustainability transitions: Insights from organisation theory and a systematic literature review," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 903-919, February.
    19. Valery Michaux, 2022. "Transformations in the automotive sector: complex change, deeper reconfiguration or dangerous disruption? [Les six mutations du secteur automobile : simple transformation, reconfiguration plus prof," Post-Print hal-03736166, HAL.
    20. Ben-Slimane, Karim & Diridollou, Cédric & Hamadache, Karim, 2020. "The legitimation strategies of early stage disruptive innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    21. Martin Adler & Stefanie Peer & Tanja Sinozic, 2019. "Autonomous, Connected, Electric Shared vehicles (ACES) and public finance: an explorative analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-005/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    22. Castañeda-Ayarza, Juan Arturo & Godoi, Beatriz Araújo, 2021. "Macro-environmental influence on the development of Brazilian fuel ethanol between 1975 and 2019," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    23. Wang, Peng & Yang, Muyi & Mamaril, Kristy & Shi, Xunpeng & Cheng, Beibei & Zhao, Daiqing, 2021. "Explaining the slow progress of coal phase-out: The case of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Region," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    24. Julian Marius Müller & Raphael Kunderer, 2019. "Ex-Ante Prediction of Disruptive Innovation: The Case of Battery Technologies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-19, September.
    25. Guo, Jianfeng & Pan, Jiaofeng & Guo, Jianxin & Gu, Fu & Kuusisto, Jari, 2019. "Measurement framework for assessing disruptive innovations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 250-265.

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