IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v61y2022ics0275531922000472.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effects of daily growth in COVID-19 deaths, cases, and governments’ response policies on stock markets of emerging economies

Author

Listed:
  • Guven, Murat
  • Cetinguc, Basak
  • Guloglu, Bulent
  • Calisir, Fethi

Abstract

Since the beginning of COVID-19, human beings have been threatened by various aspects. As of February 14, 2022, this global pandemic has caused about 412 million cases and 5.8 million deaths worldwide. Stock markets are one of the most agile economic indicators. In this context, this study investigates how daily growth in deaths, daily growth in cases, and governmental interventions affect stock market returns in 21 emerging economies from January 22 to December 31, 2020. Our results indicate that government response policies to Covid-19 positively impact stock returns. Besides, the daily growths in deaths and cases negatively affect stock market returns. The results also indicate that government response policies also have an indirect positive effect on stock market returns by weakening the negative impact of the daily growth in COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths.

Suggested Citation

  • Guven, Murat & Cetinguc, Basak & Guloglu, Bulent & Calisir, Fethi, 2022. "The effects of daily growth in COVID-19 deaths, cases, and governments’ response policies on stock markets of emerging economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:61:y:2022:i:c:s0275531922000472
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101659
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531922000472
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101659?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eberhardt, Markus & Teal, Francis, 2008. "Modeling technology and technological change in manufacturing: how do countries differ?," MPRA Paper 10690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    3. Topcu, Mert & Gulal, Omer Serkan, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on emerging stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    4. Cindy Cheng & Joan Barceló & Allison Spencer Hartnett & Robert Kubinec & Luca Messerschmidt, 2020. "COVID-19 Government Response Event Dataset (CoronaNet v.1.0)," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(7), pages 756-768, July.
    5. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2011. "Econometrics For Grumblers: A New Look At The Literature On Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 109-155, February.
    6. Kapetanios, G. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, T., 2011. "Panels with non-stationary multifactor error structures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(2), pages 326-348, February.
    7. Xin Gu & Shan Ying & Weiqiang Zhang & Yewei Tao, 2020. "How Do Firms Respond to COVID-19? First Evidence from Suzhou, China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2181-2197, August.
    8. Juhl, Ted & Sosa-Escudero, Walter, 2014. "Testing for heteroskedasticity in fixed effects models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 484-494.
    9. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    10. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2008. "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 50-93, January.
    11. Goodell, John W., 2020. "COVID-19 and finance: Agendas for future research," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    12. Constantino Hevia & Andy Neumeyer, 2020. "A perfect storm: COVID-19 in emerging economies," Vox eBook Chapters, in: Simeon Djankov & Ugo Panizza (ed.), COVID-19 in Developing Economies, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 25-37, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    14. Al-Awadhi, Abdullah M. & Alsaifi, Khaled & Al-Awadhi, Ahmad & Alhammadi, Salah, 2020. "Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    15. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem, 2020. "Economic impact of government interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: International evidence from financial markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    16. M. Hashem Pesaran & Aman Ullah & Takashi Yamagata, 2008. "A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 105-127, March.
    17. Harjoto, Maretno Agus & Rossi, Fabrizio & Lee, Robert & Sergi, Bruno S., 2021. "How do equity markets react to COVID-19? Evidence from emerging and developed countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    18. Sharif, Arshian & Aloui, Chaker & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices, stock market, geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty nexus in the US economy: Fresh evidence from the wavelet-based approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    19. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    20. Baltagi, Badi H. & Li, Qi, 1995. "Testing AR(1) against MA(1) disturbances in an error component model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 133-151, July.
    21. Siedschlag, Iulia & Yan, Weijie, 2020. "Containing the COVID-19 Pandemic: What Determined the Speed of Government Interventions?," Papers WP680, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    22. Omair Haroon & Syed Aun R. Rizvi, 2020. "Flatten the Curve and Stock Market Liquidity – An Inquiry into Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2151-2161, August.
    23. Bai, Lan & Wei, Yu & Wei, Guiwu & Li, Xiafei & Zhang, Songyun, 2021. "Infectious disease pandemic and permanent volatility of international stock markets: A long-term perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    24. Eberhardt, Markus & Bond, Stephen, 2009. "Cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models: a novel estimator," MPRA Paper 17692, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Alok Kumar Mishra & Badri Narayan Rath & Aruna Kumar Dash, 2020. "Does the Indian Financial Market Nosedive because of the COVID-19 Outbreak, in Comparison to after Demonetisation and the GST?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2162-2180, August.
    26. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Liu, Guangqiang, 2021. "COVID-19 lockdowns, stimulus packages, travel bans, and stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    27. Blomquist, Johan & Westerlund, Joakim, 2013. "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels with serial correlation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 374-378.
    28. Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Aharon, David Y. & Demir, Ender, 2020. "Infected Markets: Novel Coronavirus, Government Interventions, and Stock Return Volatility around the Globe," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    29. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2021. "COVID-19 and the United States financial markets’ volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    30. Valerie Mueller & Glenn Sheriff & Corinna Keeler & Megan Jehn, 2021. "COVID‐19 Policy Modeling in Sub‐Saharan Africa," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(1), pages 24-38, March.
    31. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem, 2020. "Stock markets’ reaction to COVID-19: Cases or fatalities?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    32. Steve J. Bickley & Martin Brumpton & Ho Fai Chan & Richard Colthurst & Benno Torgler, 2020. "Turbulence in the financial markets: Cross-country differences in market volatility in response to COVID-19 pandemic policies," CREMA Working Paper Series 2020-15, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    33. Khan, Firdos & Saeed, Alia & Ali, Shaukat, 2020. "Modelling and forecasting of new cases, deaths and recover cases of COVID-19 by using Vector Autoregressive model in Pakistan," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Khan, Muhammad Asif & Segovia, Juan E.Trinidad & Bhatti, M.Ishaq & Kabir, Asif, 2023. "Corporate vulnerability in the US and China during COVID-19: A machine learning approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    2. Gu, Tiantian & Venkateswaran, Anand & Erath, Marc, 2023. "Impact of fiscal stimulus on volatility: A cross-country analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Bouri, Elie & Abuzayed, Bana, 2023. "Decomposed oil price shocks and GCC stock market sector returns and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Wilhelm, Paulo Victor Berri & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2023. "Trade matters except to war neighbors: The international stock market reaction to 2022 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Abdurrahman Nazif Çatık & Mohamad Husam Helmi & Coşkun Akdeniz & Ali İlhan, 2024. "Time-varying effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets and economic activity: evidence from the US and Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 529-558, May.
    6. Al-Nassar, Nassar S. & Yousaf, Imran & Makram, Beljid, 2023. "Spillovers between positively and negatively affected service sectors from the COVID-19 health crisis: Implications for portfolio management," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Andrej Privara, 2022. "Economic growth and labour market in the European Union: lessons from COVID-19," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 13(2), pages 355-377, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rouatbi, Wael & Demir, Ender & Kizys, Renatas & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Immunizing markets against the pandemic: COVID-19 vaccinations and stock volatility around the world," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Padhan, Rakesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "The economics of COVID-19 pandemic: A survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 220-237.
    3. Gu, Tiantian & Venkateswaran, Anand & Erath, Marc, 2023. "Impact of fiscal stimulus on volatility: A cross-country analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Who should be afraid of infections? Pandemic exposure and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Boubaker, Sabri & Goodell, John W. & Kumar, Satish & Sureka, Riya, 2023. "COVID-19 and finance scholarship: A systematic and bibliometric analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Kamal, Javed Bin & Wohar, Mark, 2023. "Heterogenous responses of stock markets to covid related news and sentiments: Evidence from the 1st year of pandemic," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 68-85.
    7. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Karikari, Nana Kwasi & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2022. "The outbreak of COVID-19 and stock market liquidity: Evidence from emerging and developed equity markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Adolfo Maza & Paula Gutiérrez-Portilla, 2022. "Outward FDI and exports relation: A heterogeneous panel approach dealing with cross-sectional dependence," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 174-189.
    9. Aharon, David Y. & Siev, Smadar, 2021. "COVID-19, government interventions and emerging capital markets performance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    10. Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Tzouvanas, Panagiotis & Aharon, David Y. & Demir, Ender, 2021. "The quest for multidimensional financial immunity to the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    11. Díaz, Fernando & Henríquez, Pablo A. & Winkelried, Diego, 2022. "Stock market volatility and the COVID-19 reproductive number," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    12. Doruk, Ömer Tuğsal & Konuk, Serhat & Atici, Rümeysa, 2021. "Short-term working allowance and firm risk in the post-COVID-19 period: Novel matching evidence from an emerging market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    13. Sencer Atasoy, Burak, 2017. "Testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis across the U.S.: Evidence from panel mean group estimators," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 731-747.
    14. Al-Maadid, Alanoud & Alhazbi, Saleh & Al-Thelaya, Khaled, 2022. "Using machine learning to analyze the impact of coronavirus pandemic news on the stock markets in GCC countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    15. Jialei Jiang & Eun-Mi Park & Seong-Taek Park, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 on Economic Sustainability—A Case Study of Fluctuation in Stock Prices for China and South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-17, June.
    16. Deev, Oleg & Plíhal, Tomáš, 2022. "How to calm down the markets? The effects of COVID-19 economic policy responses on financial market uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    17. Schneider, Nicolas & Strielkowski, Wadim, 2023. "Modelling the unit root properties of electricity data—A general note on time-domain applications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
    18. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Li, Xiao-Ming, 2024. "Stabilizing global foreign exchange markets in the time of COVID-19: The role of vaccinations," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    19. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Do, Hung Xuan & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Portfolio diversification during the COVID-19 pandemic: Do vaccinations matter?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    20. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "The impact and role of COVID-19 uncertainty: A global industry analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:61:y:2022:i:c:s0275531922000472. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.