IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/labeco/v95y2025ics092753712500079x.html

The composition of applicants, mismatch, and matching efficiency in the German VET market

Author

Listed:
  • Fitzenberger, Bernd
  • Heusler, Anna
  • Houštecká, Anna
  • Wicht, Leonie

Abstract

Entries into firm-based vocational education and training (VET) stagnated in Germany during the 2010s and decreased by 11% between 2019 and 2020, which is likely to exacerbate future shortages of skilled workers. Against this backdrop, we study the VET market through the lens of a matching function estimated at the occupation by district level between 2013 and 2021. We employ a novel strategy to instrument for applicants and vacancies which draws on differences in local labor market conditions for different occupations. Our estimated matching elasticities for applicants and vacancies are 0.46 and 0.57, respectively. Matching efficiency shows a slight downward trend before Covid and a large drop during Covid. Using our estimates to decompose aggregate trends in matches, we find that while matching efficiency and applicants drove matches down before Covid, the increase in vacancies until 2019 stabilized the VET market. During Covid, the drop in applicants, vacancies, and matching efficiency contributed similarly to the sudden drop of matches. Furthermore, without the increase in migrants applying to VET positions, demographic change alone would have led to an even greater decline in matches already before Covid. Changes in occupational and regional mismatch did little in explaining the overall trend in matches.

Suggested Citation

  • Fitzenberger, Bernd & Heusler, Anna & Houštecká, Anna & Wicht, Leonie, 2025. "The composition of applicants, mismatch, and matching efficiency in the German VET market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:95:y:2025:i:c:s092753712500079x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102755
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092753712500079X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102755?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Samuel Muehlemann & Harald Pfeifer & Bernhard Wittek, 2020. "The effect of business cycle expectations on the German apprenticeship market: Estimating the impact of Covid-19," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0171, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    2. Fahr, Rene & Sunde, Uwe, 2005. "Job and vacancy competition in empirical matching functions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 773-780, December.
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4l136f59vb8mcalu5p6p5li007 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Stuhler, Jan & Jaeger, David & Ruist, Joakim, 2018. "Shift-Share Instruments and the Impact of Immigration," CEPR Discussion Papers 12701, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Daniel Borowczyk-Martins & Grégory Jolivet & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2013. "Accounting for Endogeneity in Matching Function Estimation," SciencePo Working papers hal-03473875, HAL.
    6. Fedorets, Alexandra & Lottmann, Franziska & Stops, Michael, 2019. "Job matching in connected regional and occupational labour markets," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 53(8), pages 1085-1098.
    7. Kirill Borusyak & Peter Hull & Xavier Jaravel, 2025. "A Practical Guide to Shift-Share Instruments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 181-204, Winter.
    8. DiNardo, John & Fortin, Nicole M & Lemieux, Thomas, 1996. "Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1001-1044, September.
    9. Daniel Borowczyk-Martins & Gregory Jolivet & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2013. "Accounting For Endogeneity in Matching Function Estimation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(3), pages 440-451, July.
    10. Mohrenweiser, Jens & Zwick, Thomas, 2009. "Why do firms train apprentices? The net cost puzzle reconsidered," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 631-637, December.
    11. Bauer, Anja, 2013. "Mismatch unemployment : evidence from Germany 2000-2010," IAB-Discussion Paper 201310, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    12. Biewen, Martin & (neé Tapalaga), Madalina Thiele, 2020. "Early tracking, academic vs. vocational training, and the value of ‘second-chance’ options," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    13. Yashiv, Eran, 2007. "Labor search and matching in macroeconomics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1859-1895, November.
    14. Werner Eichhorst & Núria Rodríguez-Planas & Ricarda Schmidl & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2015. "A Road Map to Vocational Education and Training in Industrialized Countries," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 68(2), pages 314-337, March.
    15. Dengler, Katharina & Stops, Michael & Vicari, Basha, 2016. "Occupation-specific matching efficiency," IAB-Discussion Paper 201616, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    16. Wolfgang Dauth & Reinhard Hujer & Katja Wolf, 2016. "Do Regions Benefit from Active Labour Market Policies? A Macroeconometric Evaluation Using Spatial Panel Methods," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 692-708, April.
    17. Lange, Fabian & Papageorgiou, Theodore, 2020. "Beyond Cobb-Douglas: Flexibly Estimating Matching Functions with Unobserved Matching Efficiency," IZA Discussion Papers 13177, IZA Network @ LISER.
    18. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. "Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
    19. David Card & Ana Rute Cardoso, 2022. "Wage Flexibility under Sectoral Bargaining," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(5), pages 2013-2061.
    20. Ay?egül ?ahin & Joseph Song & Giorgio Topa & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "Mismatch Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3529-3564, November.
    21. Muehlemann, Samuel & Wolter, Stefan C., 2011. "Firm-sponsored training and poaching externalities in regional labor markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 560-570.
    22. Lindner, Axel, 1998. "Modelling the German system of vocational education," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 411-423, December.
    23. Christopher A. Pissarides & Barbara Petrongolo, 2001. "Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 390-431, June.
    24. Oswald-Egg, Maria Esther & Renold, Ursula, 2021. "No experience, no employment: The effect of vocational education and training work experience on labour market outcomes after higher education," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    25. Alan Manning & Barbara Petrongolo, 2017. "How Local Are Labor Markets? Evidence from a Spatial Job Search Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 2877-2907, October.
    26. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2011. "Equilibrium in the Labor Market with Search Frictions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1092-1105, June.
    27. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger, 2013. "The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(2), pages 581-622.
    28. Patricia M. Anderson & Simon M. Burgess, 2000. "Empirical Matching Functions: Estimation and Interpretation Using State-Level Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 93-102, February.
    29. Paul Ryan, 2001. "The School-to-Work Transition: A Cross-National Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 34-92, March.
    30. Andreas Hornstein & Marianna Kudlyak, 2015. "Estimating Matching Efficiency with Variable Search Effort," Working Paper Series 2016-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    31. Michael Stops, 2014. "Job matching across occupational labour markets," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(4), pages 940-958.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wicht, Leonie & Fitzenberger, Bernd & Heusler, Anna & Houštecká, Anna, 2024. "Skill shortages: demographic change, educational choices and matching in the VET market," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302363, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Gottfries, Nils & Stadin, Karolina, 2016. "The Matching Process:Search Or Mismatch?," Working Paper Series 2016:14, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    3. Nasser Dine Mohamedou, 2022. "Labor mobility within Japanese regional labor markets and spillover effects," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 73(4), pages 625-645, October.
    4. Daniel Borowczyk-Martins & Gregory Jolivet & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2013. "Accounting For Endogeneity in Matching Function Estimation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(3), pages 440-451, July.
    5. Lisauskaite, Elena, 2022. "Matching Efficiency and Heterogeneous Workers in the UK," IZA Discussion Papers 15610, IZA Network @ LISER.
    6. Goos, Maarten & Rademakers, Emilie & Salomons, Anna & Willekens, Bert, 2019. "Markets for jobs and their task overlap," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    7. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4l136f59vb8mcalu5p6p5li007 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Suguru Otani, 2024. "Nonparametric Estimation of Matching Efficiency and Mismatch in Labor Markets via Public Employment Security Offices in Japan, 1972-2024," Papers 2407.20931, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    9. Turrell, Arthur & Speigner, Bradley & Copple, David & Djumalieva, Jyldyz & Thurgood, James, 2021. "Is the UK’s productivity puzzle mostly driven by occupational mismatch? An analysis using big data on job vacancies," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    10. Daniel Borowczyk-Martins & Grégory Jolivet & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2013. "Accounting for Endogeneity in Matching Function Estimation," SciencePo Working papers hal-03473875, HAL.
    11. Alexandra Fedorets & Franziska Lottmann & Michael Stops, 2019. "Job matching in connected regional and occupational labour markets," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(8), pages 1085-1098, August.
    12. Postel-Vinay, Fabien & Jolivet, Grégory & Borowczyk-Martins, Daniel, 2011. "Accounting For Endogenous Search Behavior in Matching Function Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 8471, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Hayato Kanayama & Suguru Otani, 2024. "Nonparametric Estimation of Matching Efficiency and Elasticity in a Spot Gig Work Platform: 2019-2023," Papers 2412.19024, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    14. Haller, Peter & Heuermann, Daniel F., 2016. "Job search and hiring in local labor markets: Spillovers in regional matching functions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 125-138.
    15. Cardullo, Gabriele & Guerci, Eric, 2019. "Interpreting the Beveridge curve. An agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 84-100.
    16. Michael Stops, 2014. "Job matching across occupational labour markets," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(4), pages 940-958.
    17. Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2017. "Mismatch and the Forecasting Performance of Matching Functions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(1), pages 101-123, February.
    18. Lee, Kangoh, 2022. "Unemployment insurance, mobile capital, output, and distributive effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    19. Kohlbrecher, Britta & Merkl, Christian, 2022. "Business cycle asymmetries and the labor market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    20. Suguru Otani, 2024. "Nonparametric Estimation of Matching Efficiency and Elasticity on a Private On-the-Job Search Platform: Evidence from Japan, 2014-2024," Papers 2410.17011, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
    21. Michael Stops, 2011. "Job Matching on non-separated Occupational Labour Markets," ERSA conference papers ersa11p372, European Regional Science Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J44 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Professional Labor Markets and Occupations
    • M53 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics - - - Training

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:95:y:2025:i:c:s092753712500079x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/labeco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.