IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iso/educat/0171.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The effect of business cycle expectations on the German apprenticeship market: Estimating the impact of Covid-19

Author

Listed:
  • Samuel Muehlemann
  • Harald Pfeifer
  • Bernhard Wittek

Abstract

A firm's expectation about the future business climate is an important determinant of the decision to train apprentices, because German firms typically train apprentices to either fill future skilled worker positions, or as a substitute for other types of labor. The current coronavirus crisis will have a strong and negative impact on the German economy according to the current estimates of the business climate in Germany (ifo Business Climate Index). To the extent that the training decision of a firm depends on its perception of the business climate, we expect a downward shift in the firm's demand for apprentices and consequently also a decrease in the equilibrium number of apprenticeship contracts. To assess the impact of changes in business climate expectations, we analyze German data on the apprenticeship market at the state-level and at the occupation-level within states from 2007 to 2019. We apply first-differences regressions to account for unobserved heterogeneity across states and occupations, allowing us to identify the association between changes in the ifo Business Climate Index and subsequent changes in the demand for apprentices, the number of new apprenticeship contracts, unfilled vacancies and unsuccessful applicants. We find that the favorable business climate in Germany in recent years led to a substantial increase in the number of unfilled vacancies. Thus, the apprenticeship market prior to the current crisis can be characterized by excess demand for apprentices (although there are matching problems in some states, with both a high share of unfilled vacancies and a high share of unsuccessful applicants). Taking into account the most recent business climate data up to May 2020, we estimate that the coronavirus-related decrease in firms' expectations about the business climate can be associated with a predicted 9.1% decrease in firm demand for apprentices and a 6.8% decrease in the number of new apprenticeship positions in Germany in 2020 (34,700 apprenticeship contracts; 95% confidence interval: +/- 8,800).

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel Muehlemann & Harald Pfeifer & Bernhard Wittek, 2020. "The effect of business cycle expectations on the German apprenticeship market: Estimating the impact of Covid-19," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0171, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  • Handle: RePEc:iso:educat:0171
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.business.uzh.ch/RePEc/iso/leadinghouse/0171_lhwpaper.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erik Hanushek & Stephen Machin & Ludger Woessmann (ed.), 2011. "Handbook of the Economics of Education," Handbook of the Economics of Education, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    2. Bellmann Lutz & Gerner Hans-Dieter & Leber Ute, 2014. "Firm-Provided Training During the Great Recession," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 234(1), pages 5-22, February.
    3. Michael Beckmann, 2002. "Firm‐sponsored Apprenticeship Training in Germany: Empirical Evidence from Establishment Data," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 16(2), pages 287-310, June.
    4. Muehlemann, Samuel & Pfeifer, Harald & Walden, Günter & Wenzelmann, Felix & Wolter, Stefan C., 2010. "The financing of apprenticeship training in the light of labor market regulations," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 799-809, October.
    5. Daron Acemoglu & Jorn-Steffen Pischke, 1999. "The Structure of Wages and Investment in General Training," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 539-572, June.
    6. Samuel Lüthi & Stefan C. Wolter, 2020. "Are apprenticeships business cycle proof?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Brunello, Giorgio, 2009. "The Effect of Economic Downturns on Apprenticeships and Initial Workplace Training: A Review of the Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 4326, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Thomas J. Kane & Dietmar Harhoff, 1997. "Is the German apprenticeship system a panacea for the U.S. labor market?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 10(2), pages 171-196.
    9. Jan Erik Askilden & Øivind Anti Nilsen, 2005. "Apprentices And Young Workers: A Study Of The Norwegian Youth Labour Market," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(1), pages 1-17, February.
    10. Christian Dustmann & Uta Schönberg, 2012. "What Makes Firm-Based Vocational Training Schemes Successful? The Role of Commitment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 36-61, April.
    11. Christian Dustmann & Uta Schönberg, 2009. "Training and Union Wages," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(2), pages 363-376, May.
    12. Ben Kriechel & Samuel Muehlemann & Harald Pfeifer & Miriam Schütte, 2014. "Works Councils, Collective Bargaining, and Apprenticeship Training – Evidence From German Firms," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 199-222, April.
    13. Lindley, Robert M, 1975. "The Demand for Apprentice Recruits by the Engineering Industry, 1951-71," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 22(1), pages 1-24, February.
    14. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
    15. Regina Dionisius & Samuel Muehlemann & Harald Pfeifer & Günter Walden & Felix Wenzelmann & Stefan C. Wolter, 2009. "Costs and Benefits of Apprenticeship Training. A Comparison of Germany and Switzerland," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 55(1), pages 7-37.
    16. Gary S. Becker, 1964. "Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, First Edition," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck-5.
    17. Dietrich, Hans & Gerner, Hans-Dieter, 2007. "The determinants of apprenticeship training with particular reference to business expectations," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 40(2/3), pages 221-233.
    18. Erik Hanushek & Stephen Machin & Ludger Woessmann (ed.), 2011. "Handbook of the Economics of Education," Handbook of the Economics of Education, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    19. Guido Baldi & Imke Brüggemann-Borck & Thore Schlaak, 2014. "The Effect of the Business Cycle on Apprenticeship Training: Evidence from Germany," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 412-422, December.
    20. repec:eme:rlepps:v:18:y:1999:i:1999:p:359-375 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. David N. F. Bell & David G. Blanchflower, 2011. "Young people and the Great Recession," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 241-267.
    22. Stevens, Margaret, 1994. "An Investment Model for the Supply of Training by Employers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(424), pages 556-570, May.
    23. Hashimoto, Masanori, 1982. "Minimum Wage Effects on Training on the Job," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(5), pages 1070-1087, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Goller & Stefan C. Wolter, 2021. "“Too shocked to search” The COVID-19 shutdowns’ impact on the search for apprenticeships," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 157(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Guglielmo Ventura, 2020. "What future for apprenticeships after coronavirus?," CVER Briefing Notes 012, Centre for Vocational Education Research.
    3. Silke Anger & Malte Sandner & Alexander M. Danzer & Axel Plünnecke & Olaf Köller & Enzo Weber & Samuel Mühlemann & Harald Pfeifer & Bernhard Wittek, 2020. "Schulschließungen, fehlende Ausbildungsplätze, keine Jobs: Generation ohne Zukunft?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(09), pages 03-24, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dummert, Sandra & Umkehrer, Matthias, 2021. "The Short-Run Effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Vocational Education in Germany," IAB-Discussion Paper 202122, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Moretti, Luca & Mayerl, Martin & Mühlemann, Samuel & Schlögl, Peter & Wolter, Stefan C., 2017. "So Similar and Yet So Different: A Comparative Analysis of a Firm's Cost and Benefits of Apprenticeship Training in Austria and Switzerland," IZA Discussion Papers 11081, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Samuel Muehlemann & Paul Ryan & Stefan C. Wolter, 2013. "Monopsony Power, Pay Structure, and Training," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 66(5), pages 1097-1114, October.
    4. Miriam Rinawi & Uschi Backes-Gellner, 2020. "Firms’ method of pay and the retention of apprentices," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(1), pages 269-291.
    5. Thomsen, Stephan L. & Trunzer, Johannes, 2020. "Did the Bologna Process Challenge the German Apprenticeship System? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 13806, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Samuel Lüthi & Stefan C. Wolter, 2020. "Are apprenticeships business cycle proof?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Schumann, Mathias, 2017. "The effects of minimum wages on firm-financed apprenticeship training," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 163-181.
    8. Luca Moretti & Martin Mayerl & Samuel Muehlemann & Peter Schloegl & Stefan C. Wolter, 2017. "So similar and yet so different: A comparative analysis of a firm's net costs and post-apprenticeship training benefits in Austria and Switzerland," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0137, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW), revised Apr 2018.
    9. Heinz Hollenstein & Tobias Stucki, 2012. "The 'New Firm Paradigm' and the Provision of Training: The Impact of ICT, Workplace Organization and Human Capital," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 148(IV), pages 557-595, December.
    10. Marc Blatter & Samuel Muehlemann & Samuel Schenker & Stefan C. Wolter, 2016. "Hiring costs for skilled workers and the supply of firm-provided training," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(1), pages 238-257.
    11. Harald Pfeifer & Uschi Backes-Gellner, 2017. "Another piece of the puzzle: Firms' investment in training as optimization of skills inventory," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0136, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW), revised Jun 2018.
    12. Felix Wenzelmann, 2012. "Ausbildungsmotive und die Zeitaufteilung der Auszubildenden im Betrieb [Training motives and the allocation of productive tasks in apprenticeship training in Germany]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 45(2), pages 125-145, July.
    13. Werner Eichhorst & Núria Rodríguez-Planas & Ricarda Schmidl & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2015. "A Road Map to Vocational Education and Training in Industrialized Countries," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 68(2), pages 314-337, March.
    14. Corinna Kleinert & Alexander Vosseler & Uwe Blien, 2018. "Classifying vocational training markets," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 61(1), pages 31-48, July.
    15. Felix Wenzelmann, 2012. "Ausbildungsmotive und die Zeitaufteilung der Auszubildenden im Betrieb," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 45(2), pages 125-145, July.
    16. Jansen, Anika & de Grip, Andries & Kriechel, Ben, 2017. "The effect of choice options in training curricula on the demand for and supply of apprentices," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 52-65.
    17. Dietrich, Hans & Gerner, Hans-Dieter, 2007. "The determinants of apprenticeship training with particular reference to business expectations," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 40(2/3), pages 221-233.
    18. Muehlemann, Samuel & Pfeifer, Harald & Walden, Günter & Wenzelmann, Felix & Wolter, Stefan C., 2010. "The financing of apprenticeship training in the light of labor market regulations," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 799-809, October.
    19. Dietz, Daniel & Zwick, Thomas, 2016. "The retention effect of training: Portability, visibility, and credibility," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-011, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    20. Peter Hoeschler & Uschi Backes-Gellner, 2017. "The Relative Importance of Personal Characteristics for the Hiring of Young Workers," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0142, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW), revised Jan 2018.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Apprenticeship market; Covid-19; coronavirus; business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • M53 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics - - - Training

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iso:educat:0171. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/isuzhch.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sara Brunner (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/isuzhch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.