IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jjieco/v45y2017icp1-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the stability of intra-industry trade

Author

Listed:
  • Hayakawa, Kazunobu
  • Ito, Tadashi
  • Okubo, Toshihiro

Abstract

This paper presents the novel finding that, in contrast to what the previous literature has shown, two-way intra-industry trade (IIT) in product–country pairs, when looked from a dynamic perspective, is very unstable by using disaggregated trade data of OECD countries. Many products frequently switch among two-way, one-way and zero trade over time. To measure the stability of two-way trade, we propose a measure that we refer to as the “IIT stability index”. Our estimation results using the proposed measure show that two-way trade involving markets of different sizes and long distance are likely to be unstable and primary products are more unstable than manufactured products.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Ito, Tadashi & Okubo, Toshihiro, 2017. "On the stability of intra-industry trade," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-12.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:45:y:2017:i:c:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2017.05.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0889158317300205
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Bloom., 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 4.
    2. Novy, Dennis, 2013. "International trade without CES: Estimating translog gravity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 271-282.
    3. Albornoz, Facundo & Calvo Pardo, Héctor F. & Corcos, Gregory & Ornelas, Emanuel, 2012. "Sequential exporting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 17-31.
    4. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Francis Kramarz, 2011. "An Anatomy of International Trade: Evidence From French Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1453-1498, September.
    5. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    6. Finicelli, Andrea & Pagano, Patrizio & Sbracia, Massimo, 2013. "Ricardian selection," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 96-109.
    7. Handley, Kyle, 2014. "Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 50-66.
    8. Gianmarco Ottaviano & Takatoshi Tabuchi & Jacques-FranÁois Thisse, 2002. "Agglomeration and Trade Revisited," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(2), pages 409-436, May.
    9. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287.
    10. Buono, Ines & Fadinger, Harald & Berger, Stefan, 2008. "The Micro Dynamics of Exporting: Evidence from French Firms," MPRA Paper 12940, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Tadashi Ito & Toshihiro Okubo, 2012. "New Aspects of Intra-industry Trade in EU Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(9), pages 1126-1138, September.
    12. Toshihiro Okubo & Pierre M. Picard & Jacques-François Thisse, 2014. "On The Impact Of Competition On Trade And Firm Location," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(5), pages 731-754, November.
    13. Chonira Aturupane & Simeon Djankov & Bernard Hoekman, 1999. "Horizontal and vertical intra-industry trade between Eastern Europe and the European union," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(1), pages 62-81, March.
    14. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
    15. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, April.
    16. David Greenaway & Robert Hine & Chris Milner & Robert Elliott, 1994. "Adjustment and the measurement of marginal intra-industry trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(2), pages 418-427, June.
    17. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487.
    18. Marius Brülhart & Robert J. R. Elliott & Joanne Lindley, 2006. "Intra-Industry Trade and Labour-Market Adjustment: A Reassessment Using Data on Individual Workers," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(3), pages 521-545, October.
    19. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    20. Tibor Besedes & Thomas Prusa, 2006. "Ins, outs, and the duration of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 266-295, February.
    21. Békés, Gábor & Muraközy, Balázs, 2012. "Temporary trade and heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 232-246.
    22. Claudy Culem & Lars Lundberg, 1986. "The product pattern of intra-industry trade: Stability among countries and over time," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 122(1), pages 113-130, March.
    23. Papke, Leslie E & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1996. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 619-632, Nov.-Dec..
    24. Lars Jensen & Teit Lüthje, 2009. "Driving forces of vertical intra-industry trade in Europe 1996–2005," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 469-488, October.
    25. Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-564, September.
    26. Esmeralda A. Ramalho & Joaquim J.S. Ramalho & José M.R. Murteira, 2011. "Alternative Estimating And Testing Empirical Strategies For Fractional Regression Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 19-68, February.
    27. Abdul Azhar & Robert Elliott & Chris Milner, 1998. "Static and dynamic measurement of intra-industry trade and adjustment: A geometric reappraisal," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(3), pages 404-422, September.
    28. Marius Brülhart & Robert Elliott, 2002. "Labour-market effects of intra-industry trade: Evidence for the United Kingdom," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 138(2), pages 207-228, June.
    29. Greenaway, David & Hine, Robert C & Milner, Chris, 1995. "Vertical and Horizontal Intra-industry Trade: A Cross Industry Analysis for the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(433), pages 1505-1518, November.
    30. Theodore Papageorgiou & Costas Arkolakis, 2009. "Learning and Selection into Exporting," 2009 Meeting Papers 183, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    31. Facundo Albornoz & Hector Calvo-Pardo & Gregory Corcos & Emanuel Ornelas, 2012. "Sequential exporting: how firms break into foreign markets," CentrePiece - The Magazine for Economic Performance 364, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    32. Costas Arkolakis, 2010. "Market Penetration Costs and the New Consumers Margin in International Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(6), pages 1151-1199.
    33. Toshihiro Okubo, 2007. "Intra-industry Trade, Reconsidered: The Role of Technology Transfer and Foreign Direct Investment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(12), pages 1855-1876, December.
    34. Richard Baldwin & Rikard Forslid & Philippe Martin & Gianmarco Ottaviano & Frederic Robert Nicoud, 2003. "Economic Geography and Public Policy," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00179815, HAL.
    35. Blum, Bernardo S. & Claro, Sebastian & Horstmann, Ignatius J., 2013. "Occasional and perennial exporters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 65-74.
    36. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    37. Richard Baldwin & Rikard Forslid & Philippe Martin & Gianmarco Ottaviano & Frederic Robert-Nicoud, 2005. "Economic Geography and Public Policy," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 7524.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Two-way trade; Intra-industry trade; Stability;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:45:y:2017:i:c:p:1-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622903 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.