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Regional (in)stability in Europe a quantitative model of state fragmentation

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  • Vanschoonbeek, Jakob

Abstract

Although there is a rich and burgeoning theoretical literature on regional (in)stability, its empirical implications remain unclear due to the scarcity of complementary quantitative research. This paper presents simulated experimental findings on spatial heterogeneity in secession proneness across 264 regions belonging to 26 European countries. To do so, it develops a broad model of state fragmentation that reconciles the views of the dominant strands in the literature. In order to apply the model, a novel indicator of regional political distinctiveness is proposed, rooted in the discrepancy between regional and national electoral behavior. Using this new indicator, we show that regional electoral heterogeneity has been on the rise in Europe in the past 40 years, offering an empirical rationale for the simultaneous rise in regionalism that is consistent with contemporary economic thinking on optimal country size. Calibrating our model to the current European situation, we find that Catalonia, Flanders and the Basque country are the regions currently predicted to be the most likely to break away. In line with these results, governments in all three regions have consistently vocalized demands for increased autonomy - or even secession - in recent years. Denmark, Hungary and Slovenia show up as the most secession-robust European countries.

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  • Vanschoonbeek, Jakob, 2020. "Regional (in)stability in Europe a quantitative model of state fragmentation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 605-641.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:48:y:2020:i:3:p:605-641
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2020.01.001
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    1. Klaus Desmet & Ignacio Ortuño-Ortín & Ömer Özak, 2022. "Is Secessionism Mostly About Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,003 Subnational Regions," NBER Working Papers 30428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Vanschoonbeek, Jakob, 2020. "Divided We Stad: a Fiscal Bargaining Model for Divided Countries," MPRA Paper 101863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Suesse, Marvin, 2019. "Adjusting the size of nations: Empirical determinants of separatism and the Soviet breakup," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 50-64.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political polarization; European Union; Secession and unification; Regionalism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism

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