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Regional (In)Stability in Europe: a Quantitative Model of State Fragmentation

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  • Jakob Vanschoonbeek

Abstract

o Despite a rich theoretical literature on regional (in)stability, little is known about its empirical validity. This paper presents simulated experimental findings on spatial heterogeneity in regional (in)stability accross 264 regions belonging to 26 European countries. To do so, it develops a broad model of state fragmentation that reconciles the views of the dominant strands in the literature. In order to apply the model, a novel indicator of regional political distinctiveness is proposed, rooted in the discrepancy between regional and national electoral behavior. Calibrating our model to the current European situation, we find that Cataluña, Flanders and the Basque country are the regions currently most likely to break away. In line with these results, governments in all three regions have consistently vocalized demands for increased autonomy - or even secession - in recent years. Denmark, Hungary and Slovenia show up as the most secession-robust European countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakob Vanschoonbeek, 2016. "Regional (In)Stability in Europe: a Quantitative Model of State Fragmentation," Working Papers of VIVES - Research Centre for Regional Economics 598939, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), VIVES - Research Centre for Regional Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ete:vivwps:598939
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    File URL: https://lirias.kuleuven.be/retrieve/e52187a2-6a5d-43b5-97a7-f0f85cf07a5b
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    Cited by:

    1. Vanschoonbeek, Jakob, 2020. "Divided We Stad: a Fiscal Bargaining Model for Divided Countries," MPRA Paper 101863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Suesse, Marvin, 2019. "Adjusting the size of nations: Empirical determinants of separatism and the Soviet breakup," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 50-64.
    3. Klaus Desmet & Ignacio Ortuño-Ortín & Ömer Özak, 2022. "Is Secessionism Mostly About Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,003 Subnational Regions," NBER Working Papers 30428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism

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