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Is Secessionism Mostly About Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,003 Subnational Regions

Author

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  • Desmet, Klaus
  • Özak, Ömer
  • Ortuño-Ortin, Ignacio

Abstract

This paper analyzes whether the propensity to secede by subnational regions responds mostly to differences in income per capita or to distinct ethnolinguistic identities. We explore this question in a quantitative political economy model where people's willingness to finance a public good depends on their income and identity. Using high-resolution economic and linguistic data for the entire globe, we predict the propensity to secede of 3,003 subnational regions in 173 countries. We validate the model-based predictions with data on secessionist movements, state fragility, regional autonomy, and conflict, as well as with an application to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Counterfactual analysis strongly suggests that identity trumps income in determining a region's propensity to secede. Removing linguistic identity differences reduces the average support for secession from 7.5% to 0.6% of the population.

Suggested Citation

  • Desmet, Klaus & Özak, Ömer & Ortuño-Ortin, Ignacio, 2023. "Is Secessionism Mostly About Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,003 Subnational Regions," CEPR Discussion Papers 17894, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17894
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    2. Lacroix, Jean & Mitchener, Kris & Oosterlinck, Kim, 2023. "Domino Secessions: Evidence from the U.S," CEPR Discussion Papers 18377, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism
    • P00 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General - - - General
    • Z10 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - General

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