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Stochastic Shocks and Incentives for (Dis)Integration

  • Fidrmuc, Jan

I present a political economy model of limits to regional redistribution under the threat of secession. The model depicts a union composed of two regions with centralized fiscal policy. The key feature is the trade off between the benefits of secession embodied by autonomous fiscal policy, and the benefits of integration --- efficiency gains and risk sharing. I argue that previously stable unions may disintegrate in response to specific patterns of region-specific output shocks. The decision on secession depends on correlation and persistence of shocks. Integration is sustainable if the shocks are positively correlated and/or transient. On the other hand, the combination of negative correlation and high persistence of the shocks makes integration fragile. Benefits from risk sharing are greatest when shocks are negatively correlated and transient.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2104.

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Date of creation: Mar 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2104
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  1. Alberto Alesina & Reza Baqir & William Easterly, 1997. "Public Goods and Ethnic Divisions," NBER Working Papers 6009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Funke, Michael, 1997. "The Nature of Shocks in Europe and in Germany," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(255), pages 461-69, August.
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  4. Fidrmuc, J., 1998. "Political Support for Reforms : Economics of Voting in Transition Countries," Discussion Paper 1998-98, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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  11. Enrico Spolaore & Alberto Alesina & Romain Wacziarg, 2000. "Economic Integration and Political Disintegration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1276-1296, December.
  12. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1996. "Federal Fiscal Constitutions: Risk Sharing and Moral Hazard," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 623-46, May.
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  14. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October.
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  18. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1996. "Federal Fiscal Constitutions: Risk Sharing and Redistribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 979-1009, October.
  19. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1992. "Transfers," NBER Working Papers 4186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Fidrmuc, J. & Horváth, J., 1998. "Stability of Monetary Unions : Lessons from the Break-Up of Czechoslovakia," Discussion Paper 1998-74, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  21. repec:dgr:kubcen:199874 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Alberto Alesina & Enrico Spolaore, 1996. "International Conflict, Defense Spending and the Size of Countries," NBER Working Papers 5694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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