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Voting under the Threat of Secession: Accommodation vs. Repression

  • Vincent Anesi
  • Philippe De Donder

We build a model of secession crises where voters may wish to accommodate the minority to prevent secession. We show the existence of a majority voting equilibrium with a government’s type biased in favor of the minority. We propose a measure of secession risk and perform the comparative static analysis of the equilibrium policy location and of the secession risk with respect to the cultural distinctiveness of the two regions, the relative weight attached by voters to economic factors, the relative size of the minority region, the probability that a secession attempt is successful, and the intra-regional heterogeneity of preferences.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2011/wp-cesifo-2011-05/cesifo1_wp3458.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3458.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3458
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  1. Dreze, Jacques & Le Breton, Michel & Weber, Shlomo, 2006. "Rawlsian Pricing of Access to Public Facilities: A Unidimensional Illustration," IDEI Working Papers 409, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
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  3. Hale, Henry E., 2000. "The Parade of Sovereignties: Testing Theories of Secession in the Soviet Setting," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 31-56, January.
  4. Massimo Morelli & Dominic Rohner, 2010. "Natural Resource Distribution and Multiple Forms of Civil War," Economics Working Papers ECO2010/33, European University Institute.
  5. Enrico Spolaore, 2010. "Federalism, Regional Redistribution and Country Stability," Chapters, in: The Political Economy of Inter-Regional Fiscal Flows, chapter 13 Edward Elgar Publishing.
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  7. Michel Le Breton & Shlomo Weber, 2003. "The Art of Making Everybody Happy: How to Prevent a Secession," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(3), pages 4.
  8. HAIMANKO, Ori & LE BRETON, Michel & WEBER, Shlomo, 2002. "Transfers in a polarized country: bridging the gap between efficiency and stability," CORE Discussion Papers 2002018, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  9. Gradstein, Mark, 2004. "Political Bargaining in a Federation: Buchanan meets Coase," CEPR Discussion Papers 4188, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Sanjeev Goyal & Klaas Staal, 2000. "The Political Economy of Regionalism," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-014/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  11. Alberto Alesina & Enrico Spolaore, 1995. "On the Number and Size of Nations," NBER Working Papers 5050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Anders Olofsgârd, 2004. "Secessions and Political Extremism: Why Regional Referenda Do Not Solve the Problem," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(5), pages 805-832, 09.
  13. Le Breton, Michel & Weber, Shlomo, 2003. "The Art of Making Everybody Happy : How to Prevent a Secession," IDEI Working Papers 164, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  14. Michele Ruta, 2005. "Economic Theories of Political (Dis)integration," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 1-21, 02.
  15. Patrick Bolton & Gérard Roland, 1997. "The Breakup of Nations: A Political Economy Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1057-1090.
  16. Olofsgard, Anders, 2003. "Incentives for secession in the presence of mobile ethnic groups," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(9-10), pages 2105-2128, September.
  17. De Donder, Philippe & Le Breton, Michel & Peluso, Eugenio, 2009. "On the (Sequential) Majority Choice of Public Good Size and Location," CEPR Discussion Papers 7223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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