A natural experiment on earthquakes and risk preferences

We conducted a survey and incentivized lab-in-the-field experiment in Tirana, Albania. Although the initial focus of our study was to examine whether and how risk preferences affect migration intentions, two large earthquakes that struck the Tirana area during our data collection transformed the project into a natural experiment. These events provided a rare opportunity to gather causal evidence – including pre-earthquake baseline data – on the impact of earthquakes on incentivized risk preferences. We find clear evidence that exposure to earthquakes increased risk aversion among affected individuals. Moreover, the second earthquake amplified the effect of the first, suggesting that such experiences have cumulative effects on risk preferences.