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Rainfall shocks and risk aversion: Evidence from Southeast Asia

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  • Sabine Liebenehm
  • Ingmar Schumacher
  • Eric Strobl

Abstract

We analyze how individual risk aversion changes in response to shocks in an agrarian setting, and the role of changes in yields and prices as two potential channels. To do so we specify a theoretical model that describes temporal alterations in risk aversion. Empirically, we test the model's proposition by combining individual‐level panel data with historical rainfall data for rural Thailand and Vietnam. We find that rainfall shocks increase individuals risk aversion, whereby the largest effects are observed among households that are net buyers of food commodities. Regarding potential channels, only prices seem to explain–and even then just to a very small extent–the increase in net buyers' risk aversion. Our findings imply that shocks can increase risk aversion, and, in the absence of functioning credit and insurance markets, may ultimately lead to decisions that perpetuate poverty.

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  • Sabine Liebenehm & Ingmar Schumacher & Eric Strobl, 2024. "Rainfall shocks and risk aversion: Evidence from Southeast Asia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(1), pages 145-176, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:106:y:2024:i:1:p:145-176
    DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12403
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    1. Meier, Armando N. & Schmid, Lukas & Stutzer, Alois, 2019. "Rain, emotions and voting for the status quo," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 434-451.
    2. Nekeisha Spencer & Eric Strobl, 2025. "Modeling the Impact of Extreme Climate Events on Household Welfare: An Empirical Framework," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(4), pages 921-964, April.
    3. Tuan, Truong Anh & Nam, Pham Khanh & Loan, Le Thanh, 2022. "The impact of health insurance on households’ financial choices: Evidence from Vietnam," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 264-276.
    4. Mark Brooks & Rattiya S. Lippe & Hermann Waibel, 2020. "Comprehensive data quality studies as a component of poverty assessments," TVSEP Working Papers wp-019, Leibniz Universitaet Hannover, Institute for Environmental Economics and World Trade, Project TVSEP.
    5. Esteban J. Quiñones & Sabine Liebenehm & Rasadhika Sharma, "undated". "Left Home High and Dry-Reduced Migration in Response to Repeated Droughts in Thailand and Vietnam," Mathematica Policy Research Reports ac2ba236e1b8428fbeb6d8b43, Mathematica Policy Research.
    6. Buehler, Dorothee & Cunningham, Wendy, 2018. "Shocks, vulnerability and income generating capacity of rural households: Evidence from Southeast Asia," TVSEP Working Papers wp-010, Leibniz Universitaet Hannover, Institute for Environmental Economics and World Trade, Project TVSEP.
    7. Bourdeau-Brien, Michael & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2020. "Natural disasters and risk aversion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 818-835.
    8. Pace, Noemi & Daidone, Silvio, 2024. "Impact of development interventions on individual risk preferences: Evidence from a field-lab experiment and survey data," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    9. Liebenehm, Sabine & Menkhoff, Lukas & Waibel, Hermann, 2021. "Risk Attitudes and Returns in Rural Economies: Evidence from Thailand and Vietnam," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 314997, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Buehler, Dorothee & Sharma, Rasadhika & Stein, Wiebke, 2019. "Personality traits in Southeast Asia - Evidence from rural Thailand and Vietnam," TVSEP Working Papers wp-014, Leibniz Universitaet Hannover, Institute for Environmental Economics and World Trade, Project TVSEP.
    11. Biener, Christian & Landmann, Andreas, 2023. "Recovery mode: Non-cognitive skills after the storm," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).

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    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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