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Drought stress impacts of climate change on rainfed rice in South Asia

Author

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  • Tao Li
  • Olivyn Angeles
  • Ando Radanielson
  • Manuel Marcaida
  • Emmali Manalo

Abstract

Rice production is threatened by climate change and the productivity of rainfed rice is increasingly challenged. A better understanding of the future trends of rice production associated with climate change is important for improving food security. Rice production under irrigated and rainfed conditions was simulated using the rice crop model ORYZA2000. Simulated rice yield representing crop and environment interaction was used to evaluate the drought impact of climate change on rainfed rice in South Asia. If rainfed rice system was applied in all current rice cultivating areas in South Asia, drought stress could result to yield losses of more than 80 in 22 %, but crop failure was lower than 40 in 73 % of the areas under mild and severe SRES A1B and A2. The spatial patterns of drought stress on rainfed rice were similar under both A1B and A2, and the yield loss and crop failure decreased slightly in the far future (2045 to 2074) in areas where drought risk was high in the near future (2015 to 2044), but the impacts would gradually increase over initially low-impact areas. Both A1B and A2 would shift the best sowing season of rainfed rice to be earlier or later by up to 90 days in 30 years. Appropriate adjustment of sowing season is a major adaptation strategy for rainfed rice production in South Asia to benefit from climate change. In this case, rainfed rice yield could potentially increase by about 10 % in most areas of South Asia associated with 10 to 50 % lower inter-annual variation and slightly higher risk for crop failure. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Tao Li & Olivyn Angeles & Ando Radanielson & Manuel Marcaida & Emmali Manalo, 2015. "Drought stress impacts of climate change on rainfed rice in South Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 709-720, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:133:y:2015:i:4:p:709-720
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1487-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matthews, R. B. & Kropff, M. J. & Horie, T. & Bachelet, D., 1997. "Simulating the impact of climate change on rice production in Asia and evaluating options for adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 399-425, July.
    2. Bouman, B.A.M. & Kropff, M.J. & Wopereis, M.C.S. & ten Berge, H.F.M. & van Laar, H.H., 2001. "ORYZA2000: modeling lowland rice," IRRI Books, International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), number 281825.
    3. Naresh Soora & P. Aggarwal & Rani Saxena & Swaroopa Rani & Surabhi Jain & Nitin Chauhan, 2013. "An assessment of regional vulnerability of rice to climate change in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 683-699, June.
    4. Joeri Rogelj & Malte Meinshausen & Reto Knutti, 2012. "Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(4), pages 248-253, April.
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    1. Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler & Juraj Balkovič & Kadri Silm & Anna Timonina-Farkas, 2019. "Large scale extreme risk assessment using copulas: an application to drought events under climate change for Austria," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 651-669, October.
    2. Mondol, Md Anarul Haque & Zhu, Xuan & Dunkerley, David & Henley, Benjamin J., 2021. "Observed meteorological drought trends in Bangladesh identified with the Effective Drought Index (EDI)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    3. Saowanit Prabnakorn & Shreedhar Maskey & F. X. Suryadi & Charlotte Fraiture, 2019. "Assessment of drought hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk for rice cultivation in the Mun River Basin in Thailand," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(2), pages 891-911, June.
    4. Marcaida, Manuel & Farhat, Yasmine & Muth, E-Nieng & Cheythyrith, Chou & Hok, Lyda & Holtgrieve, Gordon & Hossain, Faisal & Neumann, Rebecca & Kim, Soo-Hyung, 2021. "A spatio-temporal analysis of rice production in Tonle Sap floodplains in response to changing hydrology and climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    5. Akpoti, Komlavi & Dossou-Yovo, Elliott R. & Zwart, Sander J. & Kiepe, Paul, 2021. "The potential for expansion of irrigated rice under alternate wetting and drying in Burkina Faso," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    6. Mondol, Md Anarul Haque & Zhu, Xuan & Dunkerley, David & Henley, Benjamin J., 2022. "Changing occurrence of crop water surplus or deficit and the impact of irrigation: An analysis highlighting consequences for rice production in Bangladesh," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).

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