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An assessment of regional vulnerability of rice to climate change in India


  • Naresh Soora


  • P. Aggarwal
  • Rani Saxena
  • Swaroopa Rani
  • Surabhi Jain
  • Nitin Chauhan


A simulation analysis was carried out using the InfoCrop-rice model to quantify impacts and adaptation gains, as well as to identify vulnerable regions for irrigated and rain fed rice cultivation in future climates in India. Climates in A1b, A2, B1 and B2 emission scenarios as per a global climate model (MIROC3.2.HI) and a regional climate model (PRECIS) were considered for the study. On an aggregated scale, the mean of all emission scenarios indicate that climate change is likely to reduce irrigated rice yields by ~4 % in 2020 (2010–2039), ~7 % in 2050 (2040–2069), and by ~10 % in 2080 (2070–2099) climate scenarios. On the other hand, rainfed rice yields in India are likely to be reduced by ~6 % in the 2020 scenario, but in the 2050 and 2080 scenarios they are projected to decrease only marginally (>2.5 %). However, spatial variations exist for the magnitude of the impact, with some regions likely to be affected more than others. Adaptation strategies comprising agronomical management can offset negative impacts in the near future—particularly in rainfed conditions—but in the longer run, developing suitable varieties coupled with improved and efficient crop husbandry will become essential. For irrigated rice crop, genotypic and agronomic improvements will become crucial; while for rainfed conditions, improved management and additional fertilizers will be needed. Basically climate change is likely to exhibit three types of impacts on rice crop: i) regions that are adversely affected by climate change can gain in net productivity with adaptation; ii) regions that are adversely affected will still remain vulnerable despite adaptation gains; and iii) rainfed regions (with currently low rainfall) that are likely to gain due to increase in rainfall can further benefit by adaptation. Regions falling in the vulnerable category even after suggested adaptation to climate change will require more intensive, specific and innovative adaptation options. The present analysis indicates the possibility of substantial improvement in yields with efficient utilization of inputs and adoption of improved varieties. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Naresh Soora & P. Aggarwal & Rani Saxena & Swaroopa Rani & Surabhi Jain & Nitin Chauhan, 2013. "An assessment of regional vulnerability of rice to climate change in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 683-699, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:118:y:2013:i:3:p:683-699
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0698-3

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    Cited by:

    1. Prabhu Pingali & Anaka Aiyar & Mathew Abraham & Andaleeb Rahman, 2019. "Transforming Food Systems for a Rising India," Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-3-030-14409-8, March.
    2. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    3. Jayasree Krishnankutty & Michael Blakeney & Rajesh K. Raju & Kadambot H. M. Siddique, 2021. "Sustainability of Traditional Rice Cultivation in Kerala, India—A Socio-Economic Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(2), pages 1-16, January.
    4. Food and Agricultural Organization [FAO], 2016. "Climate Change and Food Systems: Global Assessments and Implications for Food Security and Trade," Working Papers id:8512, eSocialSciences.
    5. Paresh B. Shirsath & Vinay Kumar Sehgal & Pramod K. Aggarwal, 2020. "Downscaling Regional Crop Yields to Local Scale Using Remote Sensing," Agriculture, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(3), pages 1-14, March.
    6. Singh, Kuntal & McClean, Colin J. & Büker, Patrick & Hartley, Sue E. & Hill, Jane K., 2017. "Mapping regional risks from climate change for rainfed rice cultivation in India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 76-84.
    7. Sathaporn Monprapussorna, 2017. "Effects of Climate and Land Use Change on Food Security: a Case Study of Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya Province, Thailand," European Journal of Engineering and Formal Sciences Articles, European Center for Science Education and Research, vol. 1, EJEF Sept.
    8. Tao Li & Olivyn Angeles & Ando Radanielson & Manuel Marcaida & Emmali Manalo, 2015. "Drought stress impacts of climate change on rainfed rice in South Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 709-720, December.
    9. R. K. Mall & Nidhi Singh & K. K. Singh & Geetika Sonkar & Akhilesh Gupta, 2018. "Evaluating the performance of RegCM4.0 climate model for climate change impact assessment on wheat and rice crop in diverse agro-climatic zones of Uttar Pradesh, India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 503-515, August.
    10. Shirsath, Paresh B. & Aggarwal, P.K. & Thornton, P.K. & Dunnett, A., 2017. "Prioritizing climate-smart agricultural land use options at a regional scale," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 174-183.
    11. Netrananda Sahu & Atul Saini & Swadhin Behera & Takahiro Sayama & Sridhara Nayak & Limonlisa Sahu & Weili Duan & Ram Avtar & Masafumi Yamada & R. B. Singh & Kaoru Takara, 2020. "Impact of Indo-Pacific Climate Variability on Rice Productivity in Bihar, India," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(17), pages 1-21, August.
    12. Soora Naresh Kumar & Pramod Kumar Aggarwal & Kumar Uttam & Jain Surabhi & D. N. Swaroopa Rani & Nitin Chauhan & Rani Saxena, 2016. "Vulnerability of Indian mustard (Brassica juncea (L.) Czernj. Cosson) to climate variability and future adaptation strategies," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 403-420, March.
    13. Srivatsan V. Raghavan & Jiang Ze & Jina Hur & Liu Jiandong & Nguyen Ngoc Son & Sun Yabin & Liong Shie-Yui, 2017. "Distributional Impacts of Climate Change and Food Security in Southeast Asia," Working Papers DP-2016-41, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    14. Sangam Shrestha & Proloy Deb & Thi Thu Trang Bui, 2016. "Adaptation strategies for rice cultivation under climate change in Central Vietnam," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 15-37, January.
    15. Raju Mandal & Hiranya Nath, 2017. "Climate Change and indian Agriculture: Impacts on Crop Yield," Working Papers 1705, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    16. K. Viswanath & P. Sinha & S. Naresh Kumar & Taru Sharma & Shalini Saxena & Shweta Panjwani & H. Pathak & Shalu Mishra Shukla, 2017. "Simulation of leaf blast infection in tropical rice agro-ecology under climate change scenario," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 155-167, May.
    17. Sangam Shrestha & Proloy Deb & Thi Bui, 2016. "Adaptation strategies for rice cultivation under climate change in Central Vietnam," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 15-37, January.
    18. Bojana Bajželj & Keith S. Richards, 2014. "The Positive Feedback Loop between the Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Expansion and Relocation," Land, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(3), pages 1-19, July.

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