IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v97y2010i11p1861-1875.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling wheat yield and crop water productivity in Iran: Implications of agricultural water management for wheat production

Author

Listed:
  • Faramarzi, Monireh
  • Yang, Hong
  • Schulin, Rainer
  • Abbaspour, Karim C.

Abstract

In most parts of Iran, water scarcity has been intensifying and posing a threat to the sustainability of agricultural production. Wheat is the dominant crop and the largest irrigation water user in Iran; hence, understanding of the crop yield-water relations in wheat across the country is essential for a sustainable production. Based on a previously calibrated hydrologic model, we modeled irrigated and rainfed wheat yield (Y) and consumptive water use (ET) with uncertainty analysis at a subbasin level in Iran. Simulated Y and ET were used to calculate crop water productivity (CWP). The model was then used to analyze the impact of several stated policies to improve the agricultural system in Iran. These included: increasing the quantity of cereal production through more efficient use of land and water resources, improving activities related to soil moisture conservation and retention, and optimizing fertilizer application. Our analysis of the ratio of water use to internal renewable water resources revealed that 23 out of 30 provinces were using more than 40% of their water resources for agriculture. Twelve provinces reached a ratio of 100% and even greater, indicating severe water scarcity and groundwater resource depletion. An analysis of Y-CWP relationship showed that one unit increase in rainfed wheat yield resulted in a lesser additional water requirement than irrigated wheat, leading to a larger improvement in CWP. The inference is that a better water management in rainfed wheat, where yield is currently small, will lead to a larger marginal return in the consumed water. An assessment of improvement in soil available water capacity (AWC) showed that 18 out of 30 provinces are more certain to save water while increasing AWC through proper soil management practices. As wheat self-sufficiency is a desired national objective, we estimated the water requirement of the year 2020 (keeping all factors except population constant) to fulfill the wheat demand. The results showed that 88% of the additional wheat production would need to be produced in the water scarce provinces. Therefore, a strategic planning in the national agricultural production and food trade to ensure sustainable water use is needed. This study lays the basis for a systematic analysis of the potentials for improving regional and national water use efficiency. The methodology used in this research, could be applied to other water scarce countries for policy impact analysis and the adoption of a sustainable agricultural strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Faramarzi, Monireh & Yang, Hong & Schulin, Rainer & Abbaspour, Karim C., 2010. "Modeling wheat yield and crop water productivity in Iran: Implications of agricultural water management for wheat production," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(11), pages 1861-1875, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:97:y:2010:i:11:p:1861-1875
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378-3774(10)00233-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aggarwal, P.K. & Banerjee, B. & Daryaei, M.G. & Bhatia, A. & Bala, A. & Rani, S. & Chander, S. & Pathak, H. & Kalra, N., 2006. "InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. II. Performance of the model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 47-67, July.
    2. Seckler, David & Amarasinghe, Upali A. & Molden, David J. & de Silva, Radhika & Barker, Randolph, 1998. "World water demand and supply, 1990 to 2025: scenarios and issues," IWMI Research Reports 61108, International Water Management Institute.
    3. Salemi, H. R. & Mamanpoush, A. R. & Miranzadeh, M. & Akbari, M. & Torabi, M. & Toomanian, N. & Murray-Rust, H. & Droogers, P. & Sally, H. & Gieske, A., 2000. "Water management for sustainable irrigated agriculture in the Zayandeh Rud Basin, Esfahan Province, Iran," IWMI Research Reports H028239, International Water Management Institute.
    4. Gassman, Philip W. & Reyes, Manuel R. & Green, Colleen H. & Arnold, Jeffrey G., 2007. "The Soil and Water Assessment Tool: Historical Development, Applications, and Future Research Directions," ISU General Staff Papers 200701010800001027, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Malin Falkenmark, 2007. "Shift in thinking to address the 21st century hunger gap," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(1), pages 3-18, January.
    6. Bessembinder, J.J.E. & Leffelaar, P.A. & Dhindwal, A.S. & Ponsioen, T.C., 2005. "Which crop and which drop, and the scope for improvement of water productivity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 113-130, May.
    7. Yun, Jin I., 2003. "Predicting regional rice production in South Korea using spatial data and crop-growth modeling," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 23-38, July.
    8. Akbari, Mehdi & Toomanian, Norair & Droogers, Peter & Bastiaanssen, Wim & Gieske, Ambro, 2007. "Monitoring irrigation performance in Esfahan, Iran, using NOAA satellite imagery," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(1-3), pages 99-109, March.
    9. Salemi, H. R. & Mamanpoush, A. R. & Miranzadeh, M. & Akbari, M. & Torabi, M. & Toomanian, N. & Murray-Rust, H. & Droogers, P. & Sally, H. & Gieske, A., 2000. "Water management for sustainable irrigated agriculture in the Zayandeh Rud Basin, Esfahan Province, Iran," IWMI Research Reports 158346, International Water Management Institute.
    10. Aggarwal, P.K. & Kalra, N. & Chander, S. & Pathak, H., 2006. "InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. I. Model description," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-25, July.
    11. Ziaei, A. N. & Sepaskhah, A. R., 2003. "Model for simulation of winter wheat yield under dryland and irrigated conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 1-17, January.
    12. Kijne, J. W. & Barker, R. & Molden. D., 2003. "Water productivity in agriculture: limits and opportunities for improvement," IWMI Books, Reports H032631, International Water Management Institute.
    13. Liu, Junguo & Williams, Jimmy R. & Zehnder, Alexander J.B. & Yang, Hong, 2007. "GEPIC - modelling wheat yield and crop water productivity with high resolution on a global scale," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 478-493, May.
    14. Kijne, Jacob W. & Barker, Randolph & Molden, David J. (ed.), 2003. "Water productivity in agriculture: limits and opportunities for improvement," IWMI Books, International Water Management Institute, number 138054.
    15. Singh, R. & van Dam, J.C. & Feddes, R.A., 2006. "Water productivity analysis of irrigated crops in Sirsa district, India," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 253-278, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zamani, Omid & Azadi, Hossein & Mortazavi, Seyed Abolghasem & Balali, Hamid & Moghaddam, Saghi Movahhed & Jurik, Lubos, 2021. "The impact of water-pricing policies on water productivity: Evidence of agriculture sector in Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    2. Haiming Yan & Jinyan Zhan & Bing Liu & Yongwei Yuan, 2014. "Model Estimation of Water Use Efficiency for Soil Conservation in the Lower Heihe River Basin, Northwest China during 2000–2008," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(9), pages 1-17, September.
    3. Kuang, Naikun & Tan, Dechong & Li, Haojie & Gou, Qishu & Li, Quanqi & Han, Huifang, 2020. "Effects of subsoiling before winter wheat on water consumption characteristics and yield of summer maize on the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    4. Rezaei Zaman, Mostafa & Morid, Saeed & Delavar, Majid, 2016. "Evaluating climate adaptation strategies on agricultural production in the Siminehrud catchment and inflow into Lake Urmia, Iran using SWAT within an OECD framework," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 98-110.
    5. Ahmadzadeh, Hojat & Morid, Saeed & Delavar, Majid & Srinivasan, Raghavan, 2016. "Using the SWAT model to assess the impacts of changing irrigation from surface to pressurized systems on water productivity and water saving in the Zarrineh Rud catchment," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 15-28.
    6. Pakrooh, Parisa & Kamal, Muhamad Abdul, 2023. "Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on wheat yield in Iran: Evidence from national and provincial data analysis," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    7. Abolpour, Behrouz, 2018. "Realistic evaluation of crop water productivity for sustainable farming of wheat in Kamin Region, Fars Province, Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 94-103.
    8. Liu, Yangxuan & Snider, John L. & Bhattarai, Anukul & Collins, Guy, 2022. "Economic penalties associated with irrigation during high rainfall years in the southeastern United States," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    9. Yan, Zhenxing & Zhang, Wenying & Liu, Xiuwei & Wang, Qingsuo & Liu, Binhui & Mei, Xurong, 2024. "Grain yield and water productivity of winter wheat controlled by irrigation regime and manure substitution in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    10. Javadipour, Zahra & Balouchi, Hamidreza & Movahhedi Dehnavi, Mohsen & Yadavi, Alireza, 2019. "Roles of methyl jasmonate in improving growth and yield of two varieties of bread wheat (Triticum aestivum) under different irrigation regimes," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 336-345.
    11. Masih, I. & Maskey, S. & Uhlenbrook, S. & Smakhtin, V., 2011. "Impact of upstream changes in rain-fed agriculture on downstream flow in a semi-arid basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 36-45.
    12. Aster Tesfaye Hordofa & Olkeba Tolessa Leta & Tena Alamirew & Abebe Demissie Chukalla, 2022. "Response of Winter Wheat Production to Climate Change in Ziway Lake Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-17, October.
    13. Hong, Eun-Mi & Nam, Won-Ho & Choi, Jin-Yong & Pachepsky, Yakov A., 2016. "Projected irrigation requirements for upland crops using soil moisture model under climate change in South Korea," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 163-180.
    14. Azimi, M. & Heshmati, Gh.A. & Farahpour, M. & Faramarzi, M. & Abbaspour, K.C., 2013. "Modeling the impact of rangeland management on forage production of sagebrush species in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1-14.
    15. Nouri, Milad & Homaee, Mehdi & Pereira, Luis S. & Bybordi, Mohammad, 2023. "Water management dilemma in the agricultural sector of Iran: A review focusing on water governance," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vazifedoust, M. & van Dam, J.C. & Feddes, R.A. & Feizi, M., 2008. "Increasing water productivity of irrigated crops under limited water supply at field scale," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 89-102, February.
    2. Scheierling, Susanne M. & Treguer, David O. & Booker, James F. & Decker, Elisabeth, 2014. "How to assess agricultural water productivity ? looking for water in the agricultural productivity and efficiency literature," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6982, The World Bank.
    3. Zwart, Sander J. & Bastiaanssen, Wim G.M. & de Fraiture, Charlotte & Molden, David J., 2010. "WATPRO: A remote sensing based model for mapping water productivity of wheat," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(10), pages 1628-1636, October.
    4. Ahmadzadeh, Hojat & Morid, Saeed & Delavar, Majid & Srinivasan, Raghavan, 2016. "Using the SWAT model to assess the impacts of changing irrigation from surface to pressurized systems on water productivity and water saving in the Zarrineh Rud catchment," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 15-28.
    5. Susanne Scheierling & David O. Treguer & James F. Booker, 2016. "Water Productivity in Agriculture: Looking for Water in the Agricultural Productivity and Efficiency Literature," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(03), pages 1-33, September.
    6. Huang, Feng & Li, Baoguo, 2010. "Assessing grain crop water productivity of China using a hydro-model-coupled-statistics approach: Part I: Method development and validation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(7), pages 1077-1092, July.
    7. Poddar, Ratneswar & Acharjee, P.U. & Bhattacharyya, K. & Patra, S.K., 2022. "Effect of irrigation regime and varietal selection on the yield, water productivity, energy indices and economics of rice production in the lower Gangetic Plains of Eastern India," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    8. Scheierling, S. M., 2014. "How to assess agricultural water productivity?: looking for water in the agricultural productivity and efficiency literature," IWMI Working Papers H046876, International Water Management Institute.
    9. Kumar, M. Dinesh & Amarasinghe, Upali A., 2009. "Strategic Analyses of the National River Linking Project (NRLP) of India, Series 4. Water productivity improvements in Indian agriculture: potentials, constraints and prospects," IWMI Books, Reports H042633, International Water Management Institute.
    10. Liu, Junguo & Williams, Jimmy R. & Zehnder, Alexander J.B. & Yang, Hong, 2007. "GEPIC - modelling wheat yield and crop water productivity with high resolution on a global scale," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 478-493, May.
    11. Luxon Nhamo & James Magidi & Adolph Nyamugama & Alistair D. Clulow & Mbulisi Sibanda & Vimbayi G. P. Chimonyo & Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, 2020. "Prospects of Improving Agricultural and Water Productivity through Unmanned Aerial Vehicles," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-18, July.
    12. de Fraiture, Charlotte & Wichelns, D. & Rockstrom, J. & Kemp-Benedict, E. & Eriyagama, Nishadi & Gordon, L. J. & Hanjra, M. A. & Hoogeveen, J. & Huber-Lee, A. & Karlberg, L., 2007. "Looking ahead to 2050: scenarios of alternative investment approaches," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    13. Amarasinghe, Upali A. & Sharma, Bharat R., 2009. "Water productivity of food grains in India: exploring potential improvements," IWMI Books, Reports H042635, International Water Management Institute.
    14. Amarasinghe, Upali A. & Sharma, Bharat R., 2009. "Water productivity of food grains in India: exploring potential improvements," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    15. Hossain, Istiaque & Alam, Md. Mahmudul & Siwar, Chamhuri & Bin Mokhtar, Mazlin, 2019. "Measurement of Water Productivity in Seasonal Floodplain Beel Area," SocArXiv q3ayc, Center for Open Science.
    16. Wesseling, J.G. & Feddes, R.A., 2006. "Assessing crop water productivity from field to regional scale," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 86(1-2), pages 30-39, November.
    17. Karimi, Poolad & Qureshi, Asad Sarwar & Bahramloo, Reza & Molden, David, 2012. "Reducing carbon emissions through improved irrigation and groundwater management: A case study from Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 52-60.
    18. Giordano, Meredith & Turral, H. & Scheierling, S. M. & Treguer, D. O. & McCornick, Peter G, 2017. "Beyond “More Crop per Drop”: evolving thinking on agricultural water productivity," IWMI Research Reports 257962, International Water Management Institute.
    19. Cai, X.L. & Sharma, B.R., 2010. "Integrating remote sensing, census and weather data for an assessment of rice yield, water consumption and water productivity in the Indo-Gangetic river basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 309-316, February.
    20. Scheierling, Susanne M. & Treguer, David O. & Booker, James F., 2015. "Water Productivity in Agriculture: Looking for Water in the Agricultural Productivity and Efficiency Literature," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205677, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:97:y:2010:i:11:p:1861-1875. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.