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Evaluating climate adaptation strategies on agricultural production in the Siminehrud catchment and inflow into Lake Urmia, Iran using SWAT within an OECD framework

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  • Rezaei Zaman, Mostafa
  • Morid, Saeed
  • Delavar, Majid

Abstract

Lake Urmia (LU) is an internationally-registered protected area that has declined steeply since 1995. One main cause for the decline has been attributed to climate change. The simulation and evaluation of the potentially negative effects of climate change and formation of adaption measures are essential to saving the lake. An integrated modeling framework is required to allow linkage and integration of climate models with basin and field scale models. The present study applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model with the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) framework (1994) for definition and assessment of climate change adaptation strategies. Siminehrud catchment is a major sub-basin of LU basin and was selected to explore the methodology. The results of simulations show that the catchment inflow into the lake could decrease up to 30% and agriculture production up to 50%. A number of adaptation strategies were examined and it was found that revision of cropping patterns is the best measure to mitigate the negative effect of climate change; however, none of the strategies proposed thus far will maintain the long-term average inflow into the lake at the current fig. of 570 MCM. The results demonstrated the ability of SWAT to link with the OECD framework and perform the required simulations and estimations of relevant indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Rezaei Zaman, Mostafa & Morid, Saeed & Delavar, Majid, 2016. "Evaluating climate adaptation strategies on agricultural production in the Siminehrud catchment and inflow into Lake Urmia, Iran using SWAT within an OECD framework," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 98-110.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:147:y:2016:i:c:p:98-110
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2016.06.001
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    1. Gassman, Philip W. & Reyes, Manuel R. & Green, Colleen H. & Arnold, Jeffrey G., 2007. "The Soil and Water Assessment Tool: Historical Development, Applications, and Future Research Directions," ISU General Staff Papers 200701010800001027, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Faramarzi, Monireh & Yang, Hong & Schulin, Rainer & Abbaspour, Karim C., 2010. "Modeling wheat yield and crop water productivity in Iran: Implications of agricultural water management for wheat production," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(11), pages 1861-1875, November.
    3. Geerts, Sam & Raes, Dirk, 2009. "Deficit irrigation as an on-farm strategy to maximize crop water productivity in dry areas," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(9), pages 1275-1284, September.
    4. Elmira Hassanzadeh & Mahdi Zarghami & Yousef Hassanzadeh, 2012. "Determining the Main Factors in Declining the Urmia Lake Level by Using System Dynamics Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(1), pages 129-145, January.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Babaeian, Fariba & Delavar, Majid & Morid, Saeed & Srinivasan, Raghavan, 2021. "Robust climate change adaptation pathways in agricultural water management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    3. Rahmani, Javad & Danesh-Yazdi, Mohammad, 2022. "Quantifying the impacts of agricultural alteration and climate change on the water cycle dynamics in a headwater catchment of Lake Urmia Basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    4. Tan, Lili & Feng, Puyu & Li, Baoguo & Huang, Feng & Liu, De Li & Ren, Pinpin & Liu, Haipeng & Srinivasan, Raghavan & Chen, Yong, 2022. "Climate change impacts on crop water productivity and net groundwater use under a double-cropping system with intensive irrigation in the Haihe River Basin, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    5. Saleem A. Salman & Shamsuddin Shahid & Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Nadhir Al-Ansari & Zaher Mundher Yaseen, 2020. "Changes in Climatic Water Availability and Crop Water Demand for Iraq Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-20, April.

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