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The Positive Feedback Loop between the Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Expansion and Relocation

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  • Bojana Bajželj

    (Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 1PZ, UK)

  • Keith S. Richards

    (Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK)

Abstract

Climate change and agriculture influence each other. The effects of climate change on agriculture seem to be predominantly negative, although studies show a large variation in impacts between crops and regions. To compensate for these effects, agriculture can either intensify or expand in area; both of these options increase greenhouse gas emissions. It is therefore likely that such negative effects will increase agriculture’s contribution to climate change, making this feedback a positive, self-reinforcing one. We have previously used a data-driven model to examine greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 related to agricultural scenarios of increasing demand for food. Here, we extend this approach by introducing the impacts of climate change on agricultural yields. We estimate the additional losses of natural habitats and increases in greenhouse gas emissions resulting from agricultural expansion and relocation induced by the negative effects of climate change. We studied two climate change scenarios and different assumptions about trade. These additional impacts caused by climate change are found to be relatively moderate compared to demand-driven impact, but still significant. They increase greenhouse gas emissions from land use change by an additional 8%–13%. Climate change tends to aggravate the effects of demand drivers in critical regions. Current emission scenarios are underestimates in that they do not include these feedback effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Bojana Bajželj & Keith S. Richards, 2014. "The Positive Feedback Loop between the Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Expansion and Relocation," Land, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-19, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:3:y:2014:i:3:p:898-916:d:38574
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    2. Bojana Bajželj & Keith S. Richards & Julian M. Allwood & Pete Smith & John S. Dennis & Elizabeth Curmi & Christopher A. Gilligan, 2014. "Importance of food-demand management for climate mitigation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(10), pages 924-929, October.
    3. Naresh Soora & P. Aggarwal & Rani Saxena & Swaroopa Rani & Surabhi Jain & Nitin Chauhan, 2013. "An assessment of regional vulnerability of rice to climate change in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 683-699, June.
    4. Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Steinfeld, Henning & Ehui, Simeon K. & Courbois, Claude, 1999. "Livestock to 2020: the next food revolution," 2020 vision briefs 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    6. William R. Cline, 2007. "Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4037, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pinki Mondal & Sonali Shukla McDermid, 2021. "Editorial for Special Issue: “Global Vegetation and Land Surface Dynamics in a Changing Climate”," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-4, January.
    2. Antoci, Angelo & Borghesi, Simone & Iannucci, Gianluca & Ticci, Elisa, 2019. "Land use and pollution in a two-sector evolutionary model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 114-125.

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