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Spatial modelling of rice yield losses in Tanzania due to bacterial leaf blight and leaf blast in a changing climate

Author

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  • Confidence Duku

    (Africa Rice Center (AfricaRice)
    Wageningen University)

  • Adam H. Sparks

    (International Rice Research Institute (IRRI))

  • Sander J. Zwart

    (Africa Rice Center (AfricaRice))

Abstract

Rice is the most rapidly growing staple food in Africa and although rice production is steadily increasing, the consumption is still out-pacing the production. In Tanzania, two important diseases in rice production are leaf blast caused by Magnaporthe oryzae and bacterial leaf blight caused by Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae. The objective of this study was to quantify rice yield losses due to these two important diseases under a changing climate. We found that bacterial leaf blight is predicted to increase causing greater losses than leaf blast in the future, with losses due to leaf blast declining. The results of this study indicate that the effects of climate change on plant disease can not only be expected to be uneven across diseases but also across geographies, as in some geographic areas losses increase but decrease in others for the same disease.

Suggested Citation

  • Confidence Duku & Adam H. Sparks & Sander J. Zwart, 2016. "Spatial modelling of rice yield losses in Tanzania due to bacterial leaf blight and leaf blast in a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 569-583, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:135:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-015-1580-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1580-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert W. Sutherst & Fiona Constable & Kyla J. Finlay & Richard Harrington & Jo Luck & Myron P. Zalucki, 2011. "Adapting to crop pest and pathogen risks under a changing climate," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(2), pages 220-237, March.
    2. Anda Veronica Dan, 2007. "Climate change in the European Union," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 2(1), pages 60-65, March.
    3. Bouman, B.A.M. & Kropff, M.J. & Wopereis, M.C.S. & ten Berge, H.F.M. & van Laar, H.H., 2001. "ORYZA2000: modeling lowland rice," IRRI Books, International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), number 281825.
    4. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kruseman, Gideon & Dermawan, Ahmad & Diagne, Mandiaye & Enahoro, Dolapo & Frija, Aymen & Gatto, Marcel & Gbegbelegbe, Sika & Komarek, Adam M. & Mausch, Kai & Mottaleb, Khondoker, 2021. "Foresight for income and employment: What can we learn for agricultural research for development," SocArXiv 783rw, Center for Open Science.

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