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The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Hyginus Leon, 2006. "Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(3), pages 443-482, September.
  2. Keith Pilbeam & Jose Olmo, 2011. "The forward discount puzzle and market efficiency," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 119-135, February.
  3. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 2001. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1357-1394, August.
  4. Lothian, James R., 2016. "Uncovered interest parity: The long and the short of it," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-7.
  5. Zhou, Su & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "Does the forward premium anomaly depend on the sample period used or on the sign of the premium?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 17-25.
  6. Antonio Diez de los Rios & Enrique Sentana, 2011. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity: A Continuous‐Time Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1215-1251, November.
  7. Min-woo Kang, 2019. "Currency Market Efficiency Revisited: Evidence from Korea," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-17, September.
  8. Mun, Kyung-Chun & Morgan, George Emir, 2003. "Risk premia on foreign exchange: a direct approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 231-250, July.
  9. Vipul Bhatt & Arvind Virmani, 2005. "Global integration of India's Money Market : Interest rate parity in India," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 164, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
  10. Ozgur Aslan & H. Levent Korap, 2010. "Does the uncovered interest parity hold in short horizons?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 361-365.
  11. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Model-Free Evaluation of Directional Predictability in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
  12. Kerstin Bernoth & Juergen von Hagen & Casper de Vries, 2007. "The Forward Premium Puzzle: new evidence from futures contracts," DNB Working Papers 125, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  13. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889.
  14. Young-Kyu Moh, 2006. "Continuous-time model of uncovered interest parity with regulated jump-diffusion interest differential," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(21), pages 2523-2533.
  15. Muhammad Omer & Jakob de Haan & Bert Scholtens, 2019. "Does Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Hold After All?," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 24(2), pages 49-72, July-Dec.
  16. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
  17. Tang, Kin-Boon, 2011. "The precise form of uncovered interest parity: A heterogeneous panel application in ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 568-573, January.
  18. Wajid Shakeel Ahmed & Shoaib Khattak & Ijlal Ahmed, 2023. "Do forward premium rates predict the spot rates? Comparison of developed and emerging economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 2178-2187, April.
  19. Alex Maynard, 2003. "Testing for Forward-Rate Unbiasedness: On Regression in Levels and in Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 313-327, May.
  20. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
  21. Shahrin Aidil Rizal, 2015. "Does the Forward Discount Represent a Long Memory Process or Short Memory Process with Multiple Changes in the Mean?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(6), pages 630-641, December.
  22. Choi, Kyongwook & Zivot, Eric, 2007. "Long memory and structural changes in the forward discount: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 342-363, April.
  23. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira & Joshua S. White, 2003. "Foreign Currency for Long-Term Investors," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 1-25, March.
  24. Thornton, Daniel L., 2006. "Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 511-542, March.
  25. Sekioua, Sofiane H., 2006. "Nonlinear adjustment in the forward premium: evidence from a threshold unit root test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 164-183.
  26. Byung‐Joo Lee, 2011. "Uncovered Interest Parity: Cross‐Sectional Evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 219-231, May.
  27. Kellard, Neil & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2008. "Can exchange rate volatility explain persistence in the forward premium?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 714-728, September.
  28. Lothian, James R. & Wu, Liuren, 2011. "Uncovered interest-rate parity over the past two centuries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 448-473, April.
  29. Diego Agudelo Rueda & Mónica Arango Arango, 2008. "La curva de rendimientos a plazo y las expectativas de tasas de interés en el mercado de renta fija en Colombia, 2002-2007," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, June.
  30. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2011. "Learning generates Long Memory," ESSEC Working Papers WP1113, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
  31. John A. Carlson & Christian M. Dahl & Carol L. Osler, 2008. "Short-run Exchange-rate Dynamics: Theory And Evidence," Working Papers 39, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
  32. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2005. "Testing for Long Memory and Nonlinear Time Series: A Demand for Money Study," Trinity Economics Papers tep20021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  33. Alex Maynard, 2006. "The forward premium anomaly: statistical artefact or economic puzzle? New evidence from robust tests," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1244-1281, November.
  34. Richard T., Baillie, 2011. "Possible solutions to the forward bias paradox," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 617-622, October.
  35. Bianca De Paoli & Jens Søndergaard, 2017. "Revisiting the Forward Premium Anomaly Using Consumption Habits: A New Keynesian Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(335), pages 516-540, July.
  36. Hiro Ito & Menzie Chinn, 2007. "Price‐Based Measurement Of Financial Globalization: A Cross‐Country Study Of Interest Rate Parity," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 419-444, October.
  37. Richard T. Baillie & Dooyeon Cho, 2014. "When Carry Trades in Currency Markets are not Profitable," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 794-803, November.
  38. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen & Casper G. de Vries, 2007. "The Forward Premium Puzzle only emerges gradually," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-033/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  39. West, Kenneth D., 2012. "Econometric analysis of present value models when the discount factor is near one," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(1), pages 86-97.
  40. Dhekra Azouzi & Rohit Vishal Kumar & Chaker Aloui, 2011. "Forward Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Tunisian Exchange Rate Market," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 17-44, July.
  41. Inci, Ahmet Can, 2008. "The Japanese yen futures returns, spot returns, and the risk premium," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 385-399.
  42. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Liu, Guangqiang, 2020. "Predicting exchange rate returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
  43. Villanueva, O. Miguel, 2007. "Spot-forward cointegration, structural breaks and FX market unbiasedness," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 58-78, February.
  44. M. Hadzi-Vaskov & C.J.M. Kool, 2006. "The Importance of Interest Rate Volatility in Empirical Tests of Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers 06-16, Utrecht School of Economics.
  45. Tigran Poghosyan & Evzen Kocenda, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Risk Premium Determinants: Case of Armenia," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp297, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  46. Chen, Shu-Hsiu, 2017. "Carry trade strategies based on option-implied information: Evidence from a cross-section of funding currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-20.
  47. C. Emre Alper & Oya Pinar Ardic & Salih Fendoglu, 2009. "The Economics Of The Uncovered Interest Parity Condition For Emerging Markets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 115-138, February.
  48. Burton Hollifield & Armir Yaron, "undated". "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium: Real and Nominal Factors," GSIA Working Papers 2001-E13, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  49. Nelson Mark & Young-Kyu Moh, 2003. "Official Interventions and Occasional Violations of Uncovered Interest Party in the Dollar-DM Market," NBER Working Papers 9948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  50. Juan Ángel Lafuente & Jesús Ruiz, 2002. "Time-Varying forward Bias and the Volatility of Risk Premium: a Monetary Explanation," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0214, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  51. Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min & Xing, Yuhang, 2007. "Uncovered interest rate parity and the term structure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1038-1069, October.
  52. Bruno Freitas Boynard de Vasconcelos & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2014. "Banking Systemic Risk, Foreign Funding, Exchange Rate Exposure and Carry Trade: is there a relation?," Working Papers Series 365, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  53. Karim M. Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2012. "Beyond Co-Integration: Modelling Co-Movements in Macro finance," Working Paper series 25_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  54. Jairo A. Rendon, 2019. "Global And Regional Risks In Currency Returns," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(08), pages 1-25, December.
  55. Andrea Carriero, 2006. "Explaining US–UK Interest Rate Differentials: A Reassessment of the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity in a Bayesian Framework," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 879-899, December.
  56. Jaromír Kukal & Tran Van Quang, 2014. "Neparametrický heuristický přístup k odhadu modelu GARCH-M a jeho výhody [Estimating a GARCH-M Model by a Non-Parametric Heuristic Method and Its Advantages]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 100-116.
  57. Grossmann, Axel & Lee, Allissa A. & Simpson, Marc W., 2014. "Forward premium anomaly of the British pound and the euro," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 140-156.
  58. Schepp, Zoltán, 2003. "Befektetői horizont és a „forwardrejtély” [The investor horizon and the ‘forward puzzle’]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 939-963.
  59. Lee, Byung-Joo, 2013. "Uncovered interest parity puzzle: Asymmetric responses," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 238-249.
  60. Dietmar Bauer & Alex Maynard, 2010. "Persistence-robust Granger causality testing," Working Papers 1011, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
  61. Antonio Montanés & Marcos Sanso-Navarro, "undated". "Another look at long-horizon uncovered interest parity," Studies on the Spanish Economy 221, FEDEA.
  62. Baillie, Richard T. & Chang, Sanders S., 2011. "Carry trades, momentum trading and the forward premium anomaly," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 441-464, August.
  63. Javier Hualde & Morten {O}rregaard Nielsen, 2022. "Fractional integration and cointegration," Papers 2211.10235, arXiv.org.
  64. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
  65. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 2001. "Peso problem explanations for term structure anomalies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 241-270, October.
  66. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wang, Wenhao, 2022. "Uncovered interest rate parity redux: Non-uniform effects," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 133-151.
  67. Simpson, Marc W. & Grossmann, Axel, 2014. "An examination of the forward prediction error of U.S. dollar exchange rates and how they are related to bid-ask spreads, purchasing power parity disequilibria, and forward premium asymmetry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 221-238.
  68. Paolo Manasse & Graziano Moramarco & Giulio Trigilia, 2024. "Exchange rates and political uncertainty: the Brexit case," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(362), pages 621-652, April.
  69. Shu Wu, 2007. "Interest Rate Risk and the Forward Premium Anomaly in Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 423-442, March.
  70. Juan José Echavarría & Diego Vásquez & Mauricio Villamizar, 2008. "Expectativas, tasa de interés y tasa de cambio: paridad cubierta y no cubierta en Colombia, 2000-2007," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 26(56), pages 150-203, June.
  71. Hall Stephen G. & Kenjegaliev Amangeldi & Swamy P. A. V. B. & Tavlas George S., 2013. "The forward rate premium puzzle: a case of misspecification?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 265-279, May.
  72. Li, Jing & Miller, Norman C., 2015. "Foreign exchange market inefficiency and exchange rate anomalies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 311-320.
  73. Sonia Pangusión Espinosa., "undated". "Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: The Spanish case," Studies on the Spanish Economy 128, FEDEA.
  74. Haitham A. Al-Zoubi, 2017. "Cyclical and Persistent Carry Trade Returns and Forward Premia," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(04), pages 1-33, December.
  75. Shabtai Donnenfeld & Alfred A. Haug, 2008. "Currency invoicing of US imports," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 184-198.
  76. Yamani, Ehab, 2021. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and the global financial crisis: Fundamental versus technical information," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 74-89.
  77. Moon, Seongman & Velasco, Carlos, 2013. "Tests for m-dependence based on sample splitting methods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(2), pages 143-159.
  78. Baillie, Richard T. & Kilic, Rehim, 2006. "Do asymmetric and nonlinear adjustments explain the forward premium anomaly?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 22-47, February.
  79. William P. Osterberg, 1997. "Does intervention explain the forward discount puzzle?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 24-31.
  80. Coulibaly, Dramane & Kempf, Hubert, 2019. "Inflation targeting and the forward bias puzzle in emerging countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 19-33.
  81. Craighead, William D. & Davis, George K. & Miller, Norman C., 2010. "Interest differentials and extreme support for uncovered interest rate parity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 723-732, October.
  82. Benninga, Simon Z. & Oosterhof, Casper M., 2004. "Hedging with forwards and puts in complete and incomplete markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-17, January.
  83. Miah, Fazlul & Altiti, Omar, 2020. "Risk premium or irrational expectations? An investigation into the causes of forward discount bias across 27 developed and developing economies forward rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  84. Amit K. Sinha & Philip A. Horvath & Robert C. Scott, 2017. "The real miss-specification in the forward rate premium puzzle," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(3), pages 463-473, July.
  85. Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 380-393.
  86. Jamali, Ibrahim & Yamani, Ehab, 2019. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability in emerging markets: Fundamentals versus technical analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 241-263.
  87. Chaboud, Alain P. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2005. "Uncovered interest parity: it works, but not for long," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 349-362, July.
  88. TRIANDAFIL, Cristina Maria, 2013. "Sustainability of convergence in the context of macro-prudential policies in the European Union," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 130618, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
  89. Sussman, Nathan & Saadon, Yossi, 2018. "Nominal exchange rate dynamics and monetary policy: uncovered interest rate parity and purchasing power parity revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 13235, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  90. Jayawardena, Nirodha I. & Todorova, Neda & Li, Bin & Su, Jen-Je & Gau, Yin-Feng, 2022. "Risk-return trade-off in the Australian Securities Exchange: Accounting for overnight effects, realized higher moments, long-run relations, and fractional cointegration," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 384-401.
  91. Alfred Guender & Bevan Cook, 2011. "Monetary policy implementation and uncovered interest parity: Empirical evidence from Oceania," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 209-229, January.
  92. Hualde, Javier, 2014. "Estimation of long-run parameters in unbalanced cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(2), pages 761-778.
  93. Chu, Shiou-Yen, 2015. "Funding liquidity constraints and the forward premium anomaly in a DSGE model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 76-89.
  94. Ali Kutan & Su Zhou, 2003. "Has the Link Between the Spot and Forward Exchange Rates Broken Down? Evidence from Rolling Cointegration Tests," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 369-379, October.
  95. Rohit Vishal Kumar & Dhekra Azouzi, 2011. "Tunisian and Indian Forex Markets: A Comparision on Forward Rate Unbiased Hypothesis," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 14(40), pages 81-98, June.
  96. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2015. "Bootstrap score tests for fractional integration in heteroskedastic ARFIMA models, with an application to price dynamics in commodity spot and futures markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 557-579.
  97. Liu, Wei & Maynard, Alex, 2005. "Testing forward rate unbiasedness allowing for persistent regressors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 613-628, December.
  98. Baillie, Richard T. & Cho, Dooyeon, 2014. "Time variation in the standard forward premium regression: Some new models and tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 52-63.
  99. Karim M. Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2008. "Macro and Financial Markets: The Memory of an Elephant?," Working Paper series 17_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  100. Gilles de Truchis & Florent Dubois, 2014. "Unbalanced Fractional Cointegration and the No-Arbitrage Condition on Commodity Markets," Working Papers halshs-01065775, HAL.
  101. Shehadeh, Ali A. & Li, Youwei & Vigne, Samuel A. & Almaharmeh, Mohammad I. & Wang, Yizhi, 2021. "The existence and severity of the forward premium puzzle during tranquil and turbulent periods: Developed versus developing country currencies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  102. Simpson, Marc W. & Ramchander, Sanjay & Chaudhry, Mukesh, 2005. "The impact of macroeconomic surprises on spot and forward foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 693-718, September.
  103. Kyongwook Choi & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Long Memory and Structural Changes in the Forward Discount: An Empirical Investigation," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2003_02, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  104. Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2004. "Leaning Against the Parity," Studies in Economics 0413, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  105. Lothian, James R. & Koedijk, Kees & Mahieu, Ronald & Campbell, Rachel, 2007. "Irving Fisher, Expectational Errors, and the UIP Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 6294, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  106. Hualde, Javier, 2006. "Unbalanced Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(5), pages 765-814, October.
  107. Kumar, Vikram, 2020. "Liquidity shocks: A new solution to the forward premium puzzle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 445-454.
  108. Londono, Juan M. & Zhou, Hao, 2017. "Variance risk premiums and the forward premium puzzle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 415-440.
  109. Forti Grazzini, Caterina & Rieth, Malte, 2017. "Interest Rates and Exchange Rates in Normal and Crisis Times," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168281, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  110. Alex Maynard & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Rethinking an old empirical puzzle: econometric evidence on the forward discount anomaly," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 671-708.
  111. Elias, Nikolaos & Smyrnakis, Dimitris & Tzavalis, Elias, 2022. "Predicting future exchange rate changes based on interest rates and holding-period returns differentials net of the forward risk premium effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 694-715.
  112. Lundblad, Christian, 2007. "The risk return tradeoff in the long run: 1836-2003," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 123-150, July.
  113. Xiao-Ming Li, 2014. "Rethinking Long Memory and Structural Breaks in the Forward Premium," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(4), pages 455-485, September.
  114. Cho, Dooyeon, 2018. "On the persistence of the forward premium in the joint presence of nonlinearity, asymmetry, and structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 310-319.
  115. Bauer, Dietmar & Maynard, Alex, 2012. "Persistence-robust surplus-lag Granger causality testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 293-300.
  116. Bams, Dennis & Walkowiak, Kim & Wolff, Christian C. P., 2004. "More evidence on the dollar risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 271-282, March.
  117. Azzam, Islam & El-Masry, Ahmed A. & Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Foreign exchange market efficiency during COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 717-730.
  118. Jin-Chuan Duan & Kris Jacobs, 2001. "Short and Long Memory in Equilibrium Interest Rate Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-22, CIRANO.
  119. Michael D. Goldberg & Olesia Kozlova & Deniz Ozabaci, 2020. "Forward Rate Bias in Developed and Developing Countries: More Risky Not Less Rational," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-26, December.
  120. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models and currency risk: some evidence from density forecasts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 363-385, March.
  121. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Does the interest differential explain future exchange rate return? a re-examination of the UIP hypothesis for the Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 19618, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  122. Martin Cincibuch & David Vavra, 2004. "Testing for the uncovered interest parity using distributions implied by FX options," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 16, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  123. Grossmann, Axel & Simpson, Marc W., 2015. "Bid-ask spreads, deviations from PPP and the forward prediction error: The case of the British pound and the euro," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 124-139.
  124. Olesia Kozlova, 2013. "Forward-Rate Bias, Imperfect Knowledge, and Risk: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries," 2013 Papers pko627, Job Market Papers.
  125. Alessio Anzuini & Fabio Fornari, 2012. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Carry Trade Activity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 468-488, August.
  126. Tigran Poghosyan & Evžen KoÄenda & Petr ZemÄik, 2008. "Modeling Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in Armenia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 41-61, January.
  127. Lafuente, Juan A. & Pérez, Rafaela & Ruiz, Jesús, 2016. "Monetary policy regimes and the forward bias for foreign exchange," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 13-28.
  128. Juan A. Lafuente & Jesús Ruiz, 2002. "The Bias For Forward Exchange Rate And The Risk Premium: An Explanation With A Stochastic And Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers. Serie EC 2002-20, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  129. Matei Demetrescu & Christoph Roling & Anna Titova, 2021. "Reevaluating the prudence of economic forecasts in the EU: The role of instrument persistence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 151-161, January.
  130. Derek Bond & Michael Harrison & Niall Hession & Edward O'Brien, 2010. "Nonlinearity as an explanation of the forward exchange rate anomaly," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(13), pages 1237-1239.
  131. Erdemlioglu, Deniz M, 2007. "A new Test of Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 10787, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  132. Baillie, Richard T. & Kim, Kun Ho, 2015. "Was it risk? Or was it fundamentals? Explaining excess currency returns with kernel smoothed regressions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 99-111.
  133. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
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  135. Cho, Dooyeon & Han, Heejoon & Lee, Na Kyeong, 2019. "Carry trades and endogenous regime switches in exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 255-268.
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