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Liquidity shocks: A new solution to the forward premium puzzle

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  • Kumar, Vikram

Abstract

The frequent empirical failure of uncovered interest rate parity raises a question that has not been definitively answered: why do predictable excess returns on currencies persist in competitive currency markets? Supported by data from nine major currencies for 1978:08–2019:09, I provide a novel resolution to this enduring forward premium puzzle by building on the financial economics literature that explores the economic implications of limited access to capital markets. A liquidity shock, or the urgent demand for liquidity by credit-constrained arbitragers liquidating bond holdings, causes losses from sudden drops in bond prices. Arbitragers require a liquidity premium to compensate for potential losses that vary directly with the interest rate. It is this liquidity premium that explains persistent excess returns on currencies. I argue for policies favoring a low interest rate environment and macroprudential controls that ease liquidity constraints to increase the efficiency of international capital markets by reducing the liquidity premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Kumar, Vikram, 2020. "Liquidity shocks: A new solution to the forward premium puzzle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 445-454.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:91:y:2020:i:c:p:445-454
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2020.06.006
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    Cited by:

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    3. Shehadeh, Ali A. & Li, Youwei & Vigne, Samuel A. & Almaharmeh, Mohammad I. & Wang, Yizhi, 2021. "The existence and severity of the forward premium puzzle during tranquil and turbulent periods: Developed versus developing country currencies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Azzam, Islam & El-Masry, Ahmed A. & Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Foreign exchange market efficiency during COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 717-730.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity shock; Liquidity premium; UIP failure; Forward premium puzzle; Forward discount bias; Liquidity risk-augmented UIP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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