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The Forward Premium Puzzle And The Euro

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  • Nagayasu, Jun

Abstract

This paper evaluates the forward premium puzzle using the Euro exchange rate. Unlike previous studies, our analysis utilizes time-varying parameter methods and is based on two approaches for evaluation of the puzzle; the traditional approach analyzing the sensitivity of interest rate differentials to the forward premium, and the other looking into deviations from the covered interest rate parity (CIRP) condition. Then we provide evidence that the forward premium puzzle indeed became more prominent around the time of the recent crisis periods such as the Lehman Shock and the Euro crisis. This is also shown to be consistent with a deterioration in the CIRP.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 45746.

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Date of creation: Apr 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45746

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Keywords: forward premium puzzle; risk premium; time-varying parameters; financial crises;

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  1. Froot, Kenneth A & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 139-61, February.
  2. Jeffrey Frankel & Jumana Poonawala, 2006. "The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased Than in Major Currencies," NBER Working Papers 12496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 681-718, 04.
  4. Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
  5. Raymond, Jennie E & Rich, Robert W, 1997. "Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 193-213, May.
  6. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
  7. Niall Coffey & Warren B. Hrung & Asani Sarkar, 2009. "Capital constraints, counterparty risk, and deviations from covered interest rate parity," Staff Reports 393, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2010. "Infrequent Portfolio Decisions: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 870-904, June.
  9. Kim, C-J., 1991. "Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching," Papers 91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
  10. Burnside, A Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2007. "Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6399, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1992. "Measuring International Capital Mobility: A Review," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 197-202, May.
  12. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November.
  13. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  14. Peel, David A & Taylor, Mark P, 2002. "Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage in the Interwar Period and the Keynes-Einzig Conjecture," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75, February.
  15. Stephen Hall & P. A. V. B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas & Amangeldi Kenjegaliev, 2011. "The Forward Rate Premium Puzzle: A Resolution?," Discussion Papers in Economics 11/23, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  16. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  17. MacDonald, Ronald & Torrance, Thomas S, 1990. "Expectations Formation and Risk in Four Foreign Exchange Markets," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 544-61, July.
  18. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 227-270 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Jun Nagayasu, 2011. "The Common Component in Forward Premiums: Evidence from the Asia–Pacific Region," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 750-762, 09.
  20. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
  21. Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 376-91, June.
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