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When does uncovered interest parity hold?

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  • Moore, Michael J.
  • Roche, Maurice J.

Abstract

A consensus is emerging that returns to the currency carry trade are driven by two factors. One of these is probably consumption risk but there is widespread disagreement about the identity of the remaining factor. This paper bolsters the case for volatility being the unknown factor. A structural model that specifies that monetary volatility is the second factor is tested for 56 monetary regimes using the artificial economy methodology. The negative slope in the Fama regression arises when monetary volatility is low and the precautionary savings motive dominates the intertemporal substitution motive. When monetary volatility is high, the Fama slope is positive in line with uncovered interest parity. We conclude that, given the predominance of precautionary savings, the degree of monetary volatility explains whether uncovered interest parity holds.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 31 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 865-879

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:4:p:865-879

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

Related research

Keywords: Monetary volatility; Uncovered interest parity; Forward bias puzzle; Habit persistence; Carry trade;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Straetmans, Stefan T.M. & Versteeg, Roald J. & Wolff, Christian C.P., 2013. "Are capital controls in the foreign exchange market effective?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 36-53.
  2. Martin D. D. Evans, 2012. "Exchange-Rate Dark Matter," IMF Working Papers 12/66, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Brian Lucey & Grace Loring, 2012. "Forward Exchange Rate Biasedness across Developed and Developing Country Currencies - Do Observed Patterns Persist Out of Sample?Abstract:," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp404, IIIS.
  4. Aysun, Uluc & Lee, Sanglim, 2014. "Can time-varying risk premiums explain the excess returns in the interest rate parity condition?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 78-100.
  5. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "Monetary policy and the first- and second-moment exchange rate change during the global financial crisis: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-194.
  6. Demosthenes N. Tambakis & Nikola Tarashev, 2012. "Systematic monetary policy and the forward premium puzzle," BIS Working Papers 396, Bank for International Settlements.

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